Vladimir Putin is poised to escalate the war in Ukraine and has rebuffed internal and external calls for a ceasefire, according to three sources familiar with Kremlin thinking who spoke to Reuters. The Ukrainian campaign of long-range drone strikes against Russian oil refineries, fuel depots and ports has, rather than forcing Moscow to the table, hardened the president’s resolve to press on with the military offensive, the sources said. One of them, who meets Putin regularly, described a “high probability” of escalation in the coming months.

The Kremlin’s public stance, delivered by spokesman Dmitry Peskov, maintains that Russia is ready for a peaceful settlement but has the independent capacity to continue what it calls the “special military operation.” Peskov dismissed remarks by US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who suggested at a NATO summit that Ukraine’s strikes could create space for negotiations, as a “misconception.” He warned that further escalation would only prolong the war and compel Moscow to establish a larger security zone. Ukrainian intelligence assessments, relayed by a senior official in Kyiv, indicate that Putin is preparing new military steps, potentially including operations against another European country. In Moscow, some military strategists have openly discussed limited strikes on NATO infrastructure in the Baltic states and Romania, as well as on drone and missile production sites inside the European Union, with the aim of testing alliance cohesion without triggering a full-scale conventional war.

Western defence analysts note that such a course would risk a direct Russia-NATO confrontation, but could also serve a domestic purpose. Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute in London said isolated attacks might be used to divide the alliance over how to respond, while heightened tensions with NATO could provide political cover for a deeply unpopular mass conscription that the Kremlin has so far avoided. The Ukrainian drone offensive has already brought the war home to millions of Russians: fuel shortages and rationing have been reported in more than 90% of Russian regions, and one recent poll showed Putin’s approval rating at its lowest since the 2022 invasion. Yet the president has publicly dismissed Kyiv’s offer of a mutual halt to deep strikes, arguing that Russian long-range attacks are far more destructive.

The war is now in its fifth year, with Russian ground advances in the eastern Donbas region slowing despite numerical superiority. Putin has told advisers he considers the full capture of Donbas a non-negotiable objective and recently rebuked those who proposed a ceasefire along current front lines. US-led mediation efforts have stalled as Washington shifted focus to the conflict in the Middle East, but the Kremlin has expressed hope that American diplomacy will resume once that crisis is resolved. For now, however, the trajectory points toward intensified fighting rather than negotiations.