President Vladimir Putin is rejecting calls for peace negotiations and is likely to escalate the war in Ukraine in the coming months, according to three individuals with direct knowledge of Kremlin thinking. Two of the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, described the probability of a significant intensification of the conflict—now in its fifth year—as “high.” One, who meets the Russian leader regularly, said Putin had recently rebuked a group of advisers who proposed a compromise based on a ceasefire along the current front lines. The sources indicated that recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and ports have reinforced Putin’s determination to continue fighting rather than seek a negotiated settlement.

In Washington, President Donald Trump stated on Monday that Putin wants to end the war and that a solution is “closer than people imagine.” Trump held separate telephone calls with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week, and met Zelensky on Wednesday at a NATO summit in Ankara, where the two leaders discussed a potential drone agreement and the US decision to allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot air-defence interceptors. The White House did not respond to requests for comment on the Kremlin sources’ account. Publicly, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia “is ready for a peaceful solution” but possesses sufficient capacity to “act independently and continue the special military operation.”

From Kyiv, a senior Ukrainian official said intelligence reports in recent months indicate Putin is preparing for further military steps rather than peace, including new operations inside Ukraine or a possible attack on another European state. Ukrainian drone forces have struck at least 21 Russian-linked vessels in the Sea of Azov over 72 hours, targeting what Kyiv describes as a shadow fleet used to supply fuel to occupied Crimea, and have hit refineries and fuel depots deep inside Russia, including the Omsk refinery in Siberia. These strikes have triggered fuel shortages and rationing across more than 90 percent of Russian regions, according to official statements and local media. Putin has publicly rejected a June proposal from Zelensky for a meeting and a mutual halt to long-range strikes, arguing that Russian strikes are “far more powerful, sensitive and, frankly, destructive.”

Western military analysts note that any major Russian escalation could include limited attacks on NATO infrastructure in the Baltic states or Romania, designed to test alliance cohesion without triggering a full-scale conventional war. Jack Watling of the London-based Royal United Services Institute said such strikes could be used to divide the alliance over how to respond, while also providing Putin with a domestic political justification for a broader military mobilisation—a step he has so far avoided due to its unpopularity. The sources close to the Kremlin said Putin remains fixed on capturing the remainder of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, where Russian advances have slowed this year, and believes that objective will soon be achieved. No negotiations are currently scheduled, and both sides continue to exchange long-range strikes while diplomatic channels remain inactive.