On 23 June, President Vladimir Putin told graduates of Russian military academies that NATO member states are now openly preparing for war against Russia, moving beyond what he described as mere support for Kyiv. He accused Western governments of using false claims of a Russian military threat to justify radical militarisation and increased offensive budgets. The remarks, delivered at the Kremlin, mark an intensification of rhetoric as the war in Ukraine continues into its third year.

Putin outlined what he presented as a recurring Western pattern: first creating threats to Russia, forcing Moscow to take self-defence measures, then blaming Russia for aggression. He drew a direct parallel to Nazi Germany’s 1941 invasion of the Soviet Union, asserting that Berlin subsequently accused Moscow of aggression against the “collective West”. Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko separately warned that the risk of a direct military clash between Russia and NATO is increasing, referencing European intelligence assessments that the alliance aims for operational readiness by 2030. Moscow, he said, possesses sufficient resources to respond to any scenario and guarantee the security of its western borders.

Viewed from Western capitals, the increased defence spending is a response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the perceived threat to NATO’s eastern flank. European intelligence reports have cautioned that the continent must be prepared to repel a potential Russian attack by the end of the decade. Ukrainian authorities, meanwhile, describe their drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and other infrastructure as efforts to degrade Moscow’s war financing and to demonstrate that Russian territory is not insulated from the conflict. Putin dismissed any basis for negotiations with President Volodymyr Zelensky, citing these attacks on civilian targets as attempts to destabilise Russian society.

The exchange of accusations unfolds as Russian forces claim near-control of the town of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk region, and Putin stated that Russia will “go as far as it has to go.” No diplomatic track is currently active. NATO’s public planning horizon of 2030 for full readiness, combined with Russia’s ongoing modernisation of its nuclear triad and conventional forces, indicates both sides are bracing for a prolonged standoff. The next concrete step is expected to be further NATO defence spending commitments at the alliance’s upcoming summit, while Russia continues its military operation without any announced timeline for cessation.