The most significant element to emerge from the still-secret US-Iran framework is a proposed $300 billion private investment vehicle designed to revive Iran’s war-damaged economy. More than half that sum—exceeding $150 billion—has already been committed by companies from the United States, Gulf states, South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Malaysia, according to a source with direct knowledge of the deal. The fund, expected to be named the Reconstruction and Development Fund, would channel capital into energy, transport, logistics and manufacturing, but would only become operational after a final peace and nuclear agreement is concluded. Crucially, it contains no public money or grants, a distinction the White House is eager to emphasise as it seeks to distance the arrangement from the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that President Donald Trump repeatedly condemned.

The memorandum of understanding, signed electronically this week and to be formalised in Switzerland on Friday with Iranian, Pakistani and Omani officials, launches a 60-day negotiating period for a broader settlement. It follows a conflict of more than 100 days that began when US and Israeli forces struck Iran in late February, and aims to lift the American blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Yet by the administration’s own account, the MOU settles few of the core disputes: sanctions relief, frozen assets and the future of Iran’s nuclear programme are all deferred to the next round of technical talks. Viewed from Washington, the deal is already facing a fierce political storm, with critics across the ideological spectrum accusing Trump of conceding too much for a diplomatic spectacle timed to coincide with his birthday.

The controversy over the fund’s scale and provenance has become an immediate flashpoint. Vice President JD Vance initially suggested Iran “could have access” to the $300 billion, funded by a Gulf Coast coalition, provided Tehran honoured its obligations, before clarifying that “not a single cent of American money” would flow to Iran. Trump himself dismissed the figure as “fake news” at the G7 summit, insisting the US was not investing any money while simultaneously claiming the right to do so if he wished. The mixed messaging has emboldened opponents who see parallels with the 2015 deal, under which Iran gained access to frozen assets—an accord Trump long derided as a “disaster.” The president has promised to read the MOU “word for word” at a press conference after Friday’s ceremony, an unusual step aimed at quelling a rebellion within his own MAGA base.

From Tehran’s perspective, the fund represents a scaled-back version of its initial demand for $400 billion in war reparations, which Washington flatly rejected. Instead, the private investment model was proposed, with commitments already secured from a geographically diverse group of firms. Analysts in London note that the fund’s structure—a private vehicle separate from sanctions and nuclear talks—is designed to create economic incentives for both sides to reach a final accord, but its dependence on a comprehensive deal makes it a fragile bargaining chip. Gulf capitals, some of which are reportedly among the investors, view the arrangement with caution, balancing the economic opportunities of a reopened Iran against deep-seated strategic rivalries.

The coming 60 days will test whether the MOU can evolve into a durable settlement. The technical negotiations must bridge gaps on verification, enrichment limits and the sequencing of sanctions relief—issues that derailed previous diplomatic efforts. The fund’s existence, while unprecedented in scale, remains contingent on a final agreement that is far from guaranteed. For now, the framework has handed Trump a headline-grabbing diplomatic opening, but the political cost at home and the substantive hurdles ahead suggest the path from memorandum to lasting peace will be anything but straightforward.