The second round of bilateral negotiations between Mexico and the United States on the future of the T-MEC trade pact opened in Washington this week, with Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard leading a delegation to discuss agriculture, energy, automotive rules of origin, and the 50 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium. Ebrard struck a confident tone, remarking that if President Donald Trump had already decided to abandon the agreement, “we would already know.” The talks, running through Thursday with a third round set for 20 July, are unfolding without Canada, underscoring a shift towards a two-track process reshaping the continent’s commercial architecture.

Viewed from Ottawa, the absence is not passive. Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France, describing the exchange as “not a one-way conversation.” Canada has pressed for a 16-year extension of the pact, but Greer has signalled that Washington is not inclined to simply rubber-stamp the existing terms. Moody’s Ratings has warned that the initial phase of negotiations, which concluded in May with a bilateral work calendar between Mexico and the US, points to an increasing likelihood that sensitive sectors—automobiles, steel, energy, and rules of origin—will be resolved through bilateral deals or parallel mechanisms rather than a trilateral consensus. The rating agency still expects Mexico to retain preferential access to the US market, but the path is becoming more fragmented.

In Mexico City, President Claudia Sheinbaum has framed the review as a priority to ratify the pact’s validity and to reduce or eliminate tariffs on steel, aluminium, and vehicles. She stressed that Mexico supports stronger regional content rules, provided they are based on North American production. Beneath the public unity, analysts point to a structural asymmetry. In Washington, the process is tightly regulated by the Trade Act of 1974 and subject to congressional oversight. In Mexico, the legal framework is far more fluid: the law simply assigns trade negotiations to the Economy Ministry in coordination with Finance and Foreign Affairs, but the president can change the team at will. This has turned the review into a test not only of commercial strategy but of the new power architecture under Sheinbaum, where the line between trade policy and political loyalty has blurred.

The broader trade landscape adds further complexity. Despite the tariff war, Mexico has become the top supplier to the United States, with exports that comply with rules of origin maintaining preferential access. The resilience of Mexican manufacturing—bolstered by technical talent, uninterrupted production, and lighter regulatory burdens—continues to attract investment even as uncertainty forces companies to rethink supply chains. Looking ahead, the review’s outcome remains opaque. Trump’s public doubts about renewing the pact inject a persistent element of brinkmanship, while Canada’s exclusion from the formal calendar raises questions about whether the final agreement will be a single trilateral instrument or a patchwork of bilateral understandings. For now, the process is advancing, but the shape of North American trade integration after July remains anyone’s guess.