The United Kingdom’s economy expanded 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, the Office for National Statistics confirmed on Tuesday, matching the preliminary estimate and marking the fastest quarterly growth since early 2025. The data, however, capture the period before the Iran war that erupted in April and are already being read as a high-water mark. Across the Atlantic, Canada rebounded from a mild first-quarter contraction with a 0.5 per cent rise in April GDP, the strongest monthly gain since July 2025, while Argentina’s activity index fell 1.5 per cent month-on-month in April despite a 1.6 per cent year-on-year increase, underscoring a stop-start recovery.

The British expansion was powered by services, which rose 0.8 per cent, led by professional, scientific and technical activities and wholesale and retail trade. Production and construction each added 0.2 per cent. In Canada, the April bounce was broad-based: oil and gas extraction surged as synthetic crude output recovered from maintenance, while manufacturing, construction and the public sector all contributed. Exports of refined petroleum jumped 69.7 per cent year-on-year, and crude shipments to Asia and Europe rose 46.6 per cent as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz redirected global flows. Argentina’s growth, by contrast, remained concentrated in agriculture and mining, which together accounted for the entire year-on-year gain, while manufacturing and retail trade subtracted from activity.

Households in Britain felt the squeeze even as headline GDP rose. Real disposable income per head fell 0.8 per cent in the first quarter, and the saving ratio dropped to 8.9 per cent, driven by higher taxes and inflation. In Canada, the April rebound pushed back against recession talk, but Statistics Canada’s early estimate for May points to a sharp deceleration to 0.1 per cent growth. Viewed from Buenos Aires, the export-led expansion has yet to spill over into domestic demand; economists there note that credit growth, the government’s main bet for reviving consumption, is being blunted by persistently high delinquency rates.

The full economic toll of the Iran conflict will become visible only with second-quarter data. The Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund and the OECD have already marked down their 2026 growth forecasts. The next factual milestones are the release of May GDP figures for the UK and Canada, followed by the Bank of England’s August rate decision, which will be scrutinised for how policymakers weigh pre-war momentum against the post-April reality.