A sharp retreat of the polar air mass that gripped Argentina’s central provinces is driving a rapid temperature swing across the Southern Cone, while an active monsoon trough simultaneously channels extreme rainfall into eastern and northeastern India. In Buenos Aires, the maximum temperature climbed to 16°C on 14 July after weeks of sub-zero mornings, and forecasters project a further rise to 21°C by midweek, accompanied by the return of rain to the Pampas. The warming, driven by a strong northerly wind flow, reduces the immediate risk of late frosts that had threatened winter crops in the core agricultural zone.

Across South Asia, the India Meteorological Department placed Meghalaya and parts of West Bengal under an “extremely heavy rainfall” warning, with Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and Tripura also bracing for heavy to very heavy downpours through 16 July. The monsoon trough’s current position, with its western end shifted towards the Himalayan foothills, is starving the Delhi region of significant rain, leaving the capital to endure hot and humid conditions until at least 18–19 July. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu face heatwave conditions over the same period.

In South America, the warming trend is not uniform. A polar air mass continues to deliver sub-zero temperatures and widespread frost to southern Brazil, where Campos do Jordão recorded 2.1°C and São Paulo saw 9°C. Yet the most urgent alert comes from Rio Grande do Sul, where the state civil defence issued a five-day “severe weather” warning starting 16 July, forecasting storms, hail, and wind gusts exceeding 90 km/h that could cause urban flooding and rapid rises in small rivers. Colombia, meanwhile, is experiencing a prolonged spell of thunderstorms and 50 km/h wind gusts, with Bogotá, Cartagena, and Caucasia all under high precipitation probabilities through 15 July.

For agriculture, the diverging patterns carry immediate consequences. Argentine farmers view the warming and forecast rain as beneficial for soil moisture and winter crop development, while Brazilian producers in the south monitor frost damage. In India, the heavy rainfall raises the risk of localised flooding and waterlogging in the northeastern states, with authorities advising residents to avoid vulnerable structures. The next factual milestones are the arrival of a new polar front in Argentina around 22 July, which could bring snow and a sharp temperature drop, and the evolution of the monsoon trough that will determine whether Delhi receives its delayed rainfall by the end of the week.