The Paris Court of Appeal on Tuesday upheld Marine Le Pen’s conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds but reduced the accompanying ban on holding elected office, leaving the National Rally figurehead technically eligible for the April 2027 presidential election while making a campaign logistically improbable. The three-judge panel sentenced Le Pen to three years in prison—two suspended and one to be served with an electronic bracelet—and imposed a 45-month ineligibility order, of which 30 months are suspended. Because the effective ban of 15 months has already been running since the original March 2025 verdict, it will expire before the first-round vote, but the requirement to wear an ankle monitor during the campaign conflicts with her stated conditions for running.

Le Pen has repeatedly declared she will not stand if judicial restrictions limit her freedom of movement. “When you are a presidential candidate, you must have total freedom of movement, not be dependent on a judge for permission to attend a meeting in Romorantin or a market in Hénin-Beaumont,” she told French radio last week. Arriving at the courthouse without comment, she was expected to meet party president Jordan Bardella at National Rally headquarters before a scheduled evening television interview to outline her intentions. The party leadership, while publicly insisting on unity, has long prepared for a scenario in which Bardella, 30, becomes the candidate.

French polling institutes indicate that either Le Pen or Bardella would lead the first round by a wide margin. An Ifop survey cited in Swedish media gives Bardella 35–37 per cent, roughly 20 points ahead of the nearest rival, while Le Pen would secure 32 per cent. Bardella, who took over the party leadership in 2021, has cultivated support among business circles and distanced himself from some of the party’s older social promises, while Le Pen is viewed by her base as more rooted in popular sentiment. The party has spent months preparing two parallel campaign structures, and the court’s decision now forces a rapid consolidation behind a single candidate.

The case stems from a system, operating between 2004 and 2016, in which the then-Front National used EU parliamentary funds to pay staff who in reality worked for the party in France. The original trial court quantified the Parliament’s losses at €3.2 million after deducting reimbursements. Le Pen has denied fraudulent intent, acknowledging organisational errors but contesting the characterisation of a systemic scheme. The appeals court’s confirmation of guilt, even with a lighter sentence, leaves her with the option of a further appeal to the Court of Cassation, though a ruling before the election is considered unlikely. The National Rally is expected to formalise its presidential ticket in the coming weeks, with Le Pen’s evening address likely to clarify whether she will attempt to run under judicial constraints or cede the nomination to Bardella.