President Donald Trump declared the interim ceasefire with Iran “over” during a NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday, triggering a more than 6% surge in global oil prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose to $78.80 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed to $75.00. Stock futures fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average pointing to a 1% drop at the open, and yields on 10-year US Treasuries rose to a one-month high of 4.56% as investors priced in renewed inflation risk.

The spike followed an overnight exchange of military strikes. US Central Command said it hit more than 80 targets in Iran with precision munitions in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards retaliated by striking 85 US military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait. Washington also revoked General License X, the waiver that had permitted Iranian oil sales as part of the June memorandum of understanding, and gave Tehran until 17 July to wind down transactions. Ship-tracking data showed at least four tankers turning away from the strait, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply normally transits.

European equity markets fell sharply, with the Stoxx 600 down 1.6% and Germany’s DAX losing 2.1%. In Asia, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 5.4%, dragged lower by a sell-off in AI-related semiconductor stocks, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 3% on bargain-hunting in Chinese tech shares. Analysts in London noted that the renewed hostilities forced markets to reprice the risk of prolonged disruption to Hormuz shipping, just as data showed US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories at their lowest since 1983, leaving the global system more exposed to supply shocks.

The 60-day negotiation window agreed in June had already seen fragile compliance, with Iran insisting on controlling vessel routes and charging future transit fees. Trump said he considered further talks “a waste of time” but did not formally halt them. The immediate focus now turns to the 17 July deadline for winding down Iranian oil sales and whether the remaining diplomatic channels can prevent a full collapse of the framework before the August expiry of the negotiation period.