A weekend exchange of missile and drone strikes between the United States and Iran tested the four-month-old interim ceasefire, yet a swift agreement to halt hostilities and conflicting signals over planned talks in Doha left crude oil prices only modestly higher on Monday. Brent crude settled at $73.15 a barrel, up 1.6%, while West Texas Intermediate rose 2.2% to $70.75—both benchmarks remaining near their lowest levels since the conflict erupted in late February. US equity markets shrugged off the geopolitical noise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a record high and the Nasdaq surging more than 2% as technology shares rebounded.

The attacks, which included Iranian strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain and American strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, underscored the fragility of the 14-point memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June. However, the rapid agreement to cease fire and the prospect of diplomatic engagement—President Trump announced a meeting in Doha for Tuesday, while Tehran denied any such meeting was scheduled—prevented a sharper price spike. Shipping data showed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at its highest since the war began, though still below pre-war levels. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimated that if the current pace of recovery holds, Gulf oil flows could return to 23 million barrels per day by early July, helping to anchor prices near pre-conflict levels.

In Gulf markets, the uncertainty weighed on equities: Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index fell 1.1%, while Dubai and Abu Dhabi each lost 0.4%. For consumers in the UAE, the decline in average oil prices during June—Brent averaged around $73, down from $106 in May—is expected to translate into the first meaningful reduction in domestic fuel prices in four months when July rates are announced. On Wall Street, the technology sector led gains, with Alphabet up 4.8% on its first day as a Dow component and Comcast rising 4.4% after unveiling a plan to separate its media and cable businesses. Analysts at ING noted that the dollar index slipped 0.2% and that the currency’s recent rally appeared to be losing momentum, with markets looking to Thursday’s payrolls data for direction.

The next factual milestones are the planned US-Iran meeting in Doha on Tuesday—if it proceeds—and the US employment report on Thursday, which could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations. Additionally, Iranian and Omani experts are due to begin discussions on redefining transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a process that will be closely watched by energy markets for signs of a durable normalisation of shipping.