Oil prices climbed on Monday, with Brent crude futures up 0.8 per cent to $72.57 a barrel in early Asian trading, as markets absorbed a weekend of reciprocal US-Iran strikes that again disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The gains partially reversed last week’s 10.6 per cent slide, which had been driven by a sharp increase in tanker traffic following an interim peace deal signed on 18 June.

The escalation began when Iranian forces attacked several vessels transiting the strait, including a Qatar-linked tanker, prompting US airstrikes on Iranian radar and surveillance installations. Tehran then struck American military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. By Sunday, however, a US official confirmed that both sides had agreed to stand down and would hold technical talks in Doha on Tuesday, with the US team led by Nick Stewart and including envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, according to the White House.

Viewed from London, analysts at ING noted that the market appears to be focusing on the prospect of a continued recovery in oil flows, a stance they described as odd given the significant upside risk if supply normalisation proves slow. Their counterparts at ANZ pointed to tanker backlogs, damaged infrastructure and production shut-ins, estimating that it could take until the end of the year for supply to approach pre-conflict levels. Saudi Aramco resumed loadings at its Ras Tanura terminal on Friday after a near-four-month halt, though a company helicopter crash at the site on Sunday killed 14 people; the cause remains unknown and loadings continued.

In Tehran, officials accused Washington of violating the first clause of the memorandum of understanding, which requires the US to guarantee a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israeli strikes have persisted. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei warned of harsh retaliatory measures if the US fails to meet its commitments. The Doha meeting on Tuesday now becomes the immediate focal point for both the diplomatic track and the oil market’s assessment of supply risk.