Nigeria’s daily petrol imports leapt from 5.9 million litres in May to 18.1 million litres in June, a 207 percent increase, while domestic supply from the Dangote refinery fell 22 percent to 32.5 million litres per day, according to the mid- and downstream regulator’s June fact sheet. Total receipts edged up to 50.6 million litres per day, but the composition shifted sharply: the refinery, which had absorbed virtually all its output locally in May, exported 3.4 million litres per day in June even as its capacity utilisation ticked higher. Viewed from Lagos, the data signal a recalibration of market allocation rather than a simple production shortfall.

The reversal coincides with the five-month US-Iran military confrontation that choked the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global crude transits. Vessel crossings collapsed from 130 to as few as ten per day before partially recovering to around twenty. Brent crude spiked to $120 per barrel before easing toward $70. In Tehran, the rial crashed past 195,000 to the dollar as Washington tightened a naval blockade and economic pressure. Across Africa, import-dependent economies such as Kenya and South Africa saw retail queues and food-price surges of 15 percent, while Nigeria’s operational refinery prevented pump prices from reaching a projected N3,000 per litre.

Domestic pump prices nevertheless climbed to N1,230 per litre, driven by the Dangote refinery’s switch to dollar-denominated sales and elevated depot prices that reached N1,245 in Port Harcourt. The petroleum retailers’ association warned that pricing decisions by a single player risk destabilising the downstream sector, and some independent marketers reported loading delays that the refinery dismissed as false. Importers found it increasingly difficult to compete as prices in Lomé rose, reinforcing the import surge that compensated for the domestic supply dip.

Analysts in Dhaka frame the episode as “fossilflation”—inflation rooted in fossil-fuel dependence. The OECD cautioned that the Middle East conflict is stoking inflation and weakening growth, with 46 governments enacting emergency fuel measures. The IMF and World Food Programme estimate that 45 million people could face acute hunger because of elevated oil, gas and fertiliser costs. Rystad Energy data, cited in South Asian commentary, show the world’s top 100 oil and gas firms earning more than $30 million per hour in extra profit during the war’s first month. The next factual milestone is the NMDPRA’s July supply report, which will reveal whether the import surge persists as Strait of Hormuz traffic gradually resumes.