NATO’s 32 leaders convene in Ankara on Tuesday with European members preparing to announce arms contracts exceeding $50 billion, according to alliance diplomats. The summit, hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is framed by Secretary-General Mark Rutte as the launch of “NATO 3.0” — a more European-led alliance in which defence spending is equalised but the US remains “firmly rooted.” The gathering follows a year in which European and Canadian defence expenditure rose by 20 per cent in real terms to over $570 billion, a surge Rutte attributes both to the threat from Russia and to President Donald Trump’s “extremely forceful” demands.

Viewed from Washington, the summit is a test of whether allies are finally meeting their obligations. Trump has repeatedly accused European governments of free-riding, most recently condemning their restrictions on US use of bases during the war with Iran and calling the relationship “ridiculous” and “one-sided.” The US has already withdrawn an aircraft carrier, fighter jets and refuelling aircraft from NATO defence plans, and the Pentagon is conducting a six-month review of its European force posture. US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whittaker stated that the US would “do less” in Europe, expecting the continent to take over conventional defence. European officials, while acknowledging the pressure, insist they have largely honoured commitments on airspace and basing, and point to the new arms deals and financing mechanisms as evidence of a “real shift in mindset.” Ankara, for its part, may receive a significant diplomatic prize: sources told Reuters that Trump is prepared to allow Turkey to rejoin the F-35 programme, from which it was expelled in 2019 after acquiring Russian S-400 air-defence systems.

The deals to be unveiled include a Dutch-led package worth over €3 billion, a Canadian submarine contract with Germany’s TKMS, and NATO’s decision to replace its ageing AWACS fleet with Swedish Saab GlobalEye aircraft. Beyond procurement, four nations — the UK, the Netherlands, Finland and Poland — will advance a Multilateral Defence Mechanism designed to speed joint investment and attract private capital, with treaty negotiations expected to begin soon and a target establishment date of 2027. A separate proposal for a Defence, Security and Resilience Bank, headquartered in Canada, aims to ease lending to defence firms. These initiatives reflect a structural response to the US demand that Europe shoulder the primary burden for conventional deterrence against Russia, while Washington reorients towards the Pacific and the Middle East.

The summit opens against a backdrop of continued Russian missile strikes on Ukraine, which killed at least 28 people in Kyiv on Monday and underscored Kyiv’s shortage of US-made air-defence interceptors. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will attend a leaders’ dinner on Tuesday and hold a bilateral meeting with Trump on Wednesday, seeking a pledge of €70 billion in military assistance for the year. European diplomats hope that Erdoğan’s and Rutte’s personal rapport with Trump can prevent a public rupture, but acknowledge that lingering tensions over Greenland, Iran and Trump’s recent feud with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni leave the outcome uncertain. The summit is expected to conclude with a reaffirmation of support for Ukraine and a commitment to align new European defence financing with NATO’s capability targets.