NATO’s 32 heads of state and government open a two-day summit in Ankara on Tuesday under a direct US ultimatum to present “clear, concrete and credible plans” for raising defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035. The gathering, hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is the first since allies endorsed the ambitious target at The Hague last year, and it unfolds against a backdrop of transatlantic friction over the US-led war in Iran, President Donald Trump’s threats to withdraw from the alliance, and a six-month Pentagon review of America’s military footprint in Europe.

Viewed from Washington, the summit is a test of burden-shifting. US ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said Trump expects all allies to “step up immediately” and warned of unspecified consequences for those who lag. The administration has linked defence spending to “loyalty,” citing the refusal of several European governments—including Spain and Italy—to grant base access and overflight rights during the Iran campaign. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, seeking to defuse tensions, told reporters that European allies and Canada now invest around 4 per cent of GDP in defence and security, and will announce contracts worth tens of billions of dollars at a defence industry forum. He credited Trump’s pressure as a factor, while noting that the $258 billion in extra investment across 2025 and 2026 represents “transformational progress.”

European and Canadian officials arrive with varied records. Germany, Poland, the Nordic and Baltic states are on track toward the 5 per cent goal, while Spain, Italy, Belgium and others remain below 2.5 per cent in core defence spending, according to NATO diplomats. Canada, which long struggled to meet the old 2 per cent benchmark, now projects 2.13 per cent for 2026-27 and insists it can reach 5 per cent by 2035, though it has not publicly detailed how. The summit declaration, finalised by ambassadors on Friday, will reaffirm the Article 5 collective-defence pledge, commit €70 billion in military aid to Ukraine for 2026, and state that Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon while demanding freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Leaders will also endorse a “stronger Europe in a stronger NATO” formula that frames European rearmament as complementary to, not a replacement for, the US role.

Behind the choreographed unity, diplomats acknowledge that the alliance is deliberately avoiding open confrontation. The agenda has been slimmed down, and Rutte has urged members to focus on “the lowest common denominator” because, as former Canadian ambassador Kerry Buck put it, “the cost of drama is too high for the alliance right now.” Turkey, which fields NATO’s second-largest military and controls the Black Sea straits, has seen its strategic value rise sharply; Erdoğan’s personal rapport with Trump is expected to help manage friction. Bilateral meetings, including Trump’s talks with Erdoğan and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, will test whether the summit can produce enough concrete progress on spending and Ukraine support to stabilise the alliance through a turbulent period. The secretary-general’s closing press conference on Wednesday is expected to outline the next steps for the 5 per cent trajectory.