The NATO summit opened in Ankara on Tuesday with allies under pressure to present concrete plans to meet the 5% of GDP defence spending target by 2035, a pledge made at The Hague summit a year ago. Secretary-General Mark Rutte told reporters that European allies and Canada now invest around 4% of GDP in defence and security, with combined additional investment of $258 billion in 2025 and 2026. He called the progress “transformational” but warned that capitals must deliver “clear, concrete and credible plans” to reach the 5% goal, adding that “if one or two still have to be convinced, we have ways to do that.”

Viewed from Washington, the summit is a “report card” on allied burden-sharing, according to US Ambassador Matthew Whitaker. President Donald Trump has repeatedly called the alliance “ridiculous” and “one-sided,” citing European refusal to allow base access during the US-led war with Iran. US officials indicate the Pentagon is reviewing its force posture in Europe, with some 5,000 troops already withdrawn from Germany. European governments, particularly in Paris and London, have sought to placate Trump by announcing a joint naval mission with Oman to protect Strait of Hormuz shipping and by showcasing new arms contracts worth tens of billions of dollars. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrives amid a public spat with Trump, who posted a meme suggesting she needed a “restraining order”; Rome’s defence minister said “people come and go, but relationships remain.”

The war in Ukraine remains central. President Volodymyr Zelensky is to meet Trump bilaterally on Wednesday, after a weekend phone call Zelensky described as “very good.” Trump told reporters that both Putin and Zelensky want to end the war and that he believes a resolution is “much closer than people think.” Meanwhile, Russia launched 68 missiles and 350 drones at the Kyiv region overnight, killing at least 21 people. Ukrainian officials and European diplomats interpret the timing as a deliberate signal from Moscow that it retains the battlefield initiative. Rutte said Ukraine is “changing the dynamics on the battlefield” but needs continued air defence support. European allies and Canada are expected to pledge at least €70 billion annually in military aid for 2026 and 2027, effectively taking over the financial burden as US assistance has been largely halted.

The summit is set to announce new defence industrial contracts, including for air and missile defence, and to endorse a “NATO 3.0” vision in which Europe assumes conventional defence leadership while the US provides nuclear deterrence and focused support. Analysts in European capitals note that the alliance is not at a breaking point but entering a “period of profound adjustment,” as one German Marshall Fund fellow put it. The two-day meeting will also feature bilateral talks between Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, underscoring Ankara’s growing geopolitical weight. The final communiqué is expected to reaffirm the 5% target and long-term Ukraine support, though diplomats caution that the real test will be national implementation plans submitted in the coming months.