On the eve of the NATO summit in Ankara, Secretary General Mark Rutte declared that European allies and Canada are now spending approximately 4% of their combined GDP on defence and security, describing the increase as “transformative” progress toward the alliance’s 5% target for 2035. The claim, which Rutte said represents an additional $258 billion in investment across 2025 and 2026, was immediately overshadowed by a parallel demand from Washington that all members present immediate, credible plans to reach the 5% threshold or face unspecified consequences. President Donald Trump, according to US officials, intends to deliver that message personally during the two-day gathering.

The divergence in tone reflects a deeper tension over burden-sharing. Washington, through its ambassador to NATO and defence officials, has framed the summit as a moment for European allies to assume leadership under a “NATO 3.0” concept, freeing the United States to focus on other priorities. Trump has also called for “loyalty” from allies, a reference to the refusal of some members to allow the use of their bases during the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. European capitals, meanwhile, are divided. Poland, the Nordic states and the Baltic countries are cited by US and NATO officials as frontrunners in defence spending, while Spain and Belgium have publicly questioned the feasibility of the 5% goal. Italy has signalled it may count civilian infrastructure investment toward the target, and Britain, despite a £15 billion increase, is projected to reach only 2.7% of GDP by 2029.

The headline 4% figure is itself the subject of dispute. Diplomats in Ankara note that the 5% target agreed at The Hague in 2025 is split into a 3.5% component for core defence budgets and a 1.5% component for security-related spending, defined broadly to include roads, bridges and ports. According to these officials, nearly all member states already meet the 1.5% security threshold, but only nine countries exceed 2.5% on hard defence expenditure, while three—Albania, Slovenia and the Czech Republic—remain below the old 2% benchmark. NATO has delayed publication of its annual spending estimates for the current year because some national submissions were deemed unreliable, a sign of the methodological and political challenges underlying the alliance’s public accounting.

Beyond spending, the summit’s draft communiqué reaffirms an “ironclad” commitment to Article 5 collective defence, identifies Russia as a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security, and pledges €70 billion in assistance to Ukraine for 2026, with a similar level expected the following year. Trump is scheduled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines, with US officials indicating he will press for greater urgency in ending the war. The final declaration is also expected to state that Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon and must respect freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. A defence industry forum on the summit’s opening day will announce new multinational procurement contracts worth tens of billions of dollars. The immediate test for the alliance is whether the plans presented by member states satisfy Washington’s demand for a rapid shift in spending, or whether the consequences threatened by Trump materialise in the weeks ahead.