The group phase of the 2026 World Cup delivered a flurry of certainties on Monday as Argentina, France and Norway became the latest sides to book their places in the round of 32, joining co-hosts Mexico and the United States plus Germany. At the other end of the table, Haiti, Tunisia, Türkiye and Jordan saw their campaigns ended with a match to spare, the first four teams mathematically eliminated from the tournament.

Argentina’s progression was sealed with the kind of clinical authority that defending champions are expected to display. In Dallas, Lionel Scaloni’s side defeated Austria 2-0 behind two goals from Lionel Messi, a performance that lifted the captain to the top of the all-time World Cup scoring charts. The result, combined with Algeria’s 2-1 comeback victory over Jordan in Santa Clara, ensured Argentina cannot be caught at the summit of Group J. Viewed from Buenos Aires, the evening reinforced the sense of a team peaking at the right moment, with Messi’s five goals in two matches providing the tournament’s most compelling individual narrative.

Group I became the first to produce two qualifiers after France and Norway both recorded their second wins. France overpowered Iraq 3-0 in Philadelphia, a match briefly interrupted by electrical storms, with Kylian Mbappé scoring twice and Ousmane Dembélé adding a third. Norway, meanwhile, edged Senegal 3-2 in New Jersey, Erling Haaland’s double and an early strike from Marcus Pedersen proving just enough despite two goals from Ismaïla Sarr. The two European sides will now meet in the final group game to decide who tops the section, a contest that will shape their paths through the knockout bracket.

The list of eliminated teams reflects the global spread of early disappointments. Haiti, representing CONCACAF, fell to Scotland and Brazil; Tunisia, from Africa, were overwhelmed by Sweden and Japan; Türkiye’s European challenge was undone by Australia and Paraguay; and Jordan, Asia’s first casualty, lost to Austria and Algeria. Across Asian football circles, the swift exit of Jordan and Tunisia’s heavy defeats have prompted sober assessments of the gap between the continent’s mid-tier sides and the tournament’s established powers.

With 32 of the 48 teams eventually advancing—the top two in each of the 12 groups plus the eight best third-placed finishers—the final round of group matches will settle a host of unresolved races. Brazil, sitting on six points in Group C, can clinch top spot with a draw against Scotland but are not yet mathematically assured of progress. Groups B, F, G and H remain especially tight, with multiple teams still in contention for automatic berths and the safety net of third place. The next 48 hours will determine whether the early qualifiers are joined by a wave of favourites or by unexpected names riding the volatility of the new format.