Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has ruled out sending the country’s armed forces into the war in Ukraine, even as he accused an international “party of war” of deliberately prolonging the conflict. Speaking at a military ceremony in Minsk, Lukashenko stated that “nobody will send you into this slaughter” and that Belarus remains committed to a peaceful resolution. The declaration, reported by state media on 6 July, follows a late-June meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at which, according to a Wall Street Journal report, Moscow requested greater Belarusian assistance for its full-scale invasion—a claim the Kremlin denies.

Viewed from Minsk, the country is already under a hybrid war that combines economic pressure, political subversion and active espionage along its southern border. Lukashenko has defined red lines for Kyiv: any unauthorised border crossing would trigger a response with “the full potential” of Belarusian forces, Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Sekreta said. At the same time, Minsk insists that dragging it into the fighting would be counterproductive for Ukraine, as it would extend the front by more than 1,000 kilometres. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has demanded that Belarus halt construction of what he calls “aggression infrastructure”—roads, ammunition depots and fuel storage—near the frontier, and has previously threatened strikes against relay stations allegedly used to coordinate Russian attacks.

Western capitals, in Lukashenko’s framing, form the core of the “party of war” that is fuelling the conflict. He pointed to European Union states that, while professing peace, are spending billions on offensive weaponry. Germany’s defence minister announced that Berlin would provide the largest individual share of a new NATO military support package for Ukraine, and Kyiv has requested €6.6 billion from the EU to meet its battlefield needs. Moscow, for its part, has relied on Belarus as a staging ground since February 2022, firing missiles from Belarusian territory and transporting troops and equipment across the border, but has not secured the deployment of Belarusian soldiers.

Domestic sentiment in Belarus constrains any deeper involvement. A 2025 Chatham House poll found that 40 per cent of Belarusians do not support Russia’s military action, and dozens of officers resigned in protest when the invasion began. Lukashenko, aware of the threat to his hold on power, has instead pursued a delicate balancing act: maintaining the alliance with Russia while publicly refusing to commit combat troops. A meeting with Ukrainian representatives on 25 June reaffirmed the mutual understanding that Minsk should not be drawn in, but the border situation remains “extremely tense,” according to Lukashenko, and further diplomatic exchanges or military posturing are expected as both sides watch for any shift in Belarus’s posture.