A Paris appeals court ruling on 7 July 2026 has allowed Marine Le Pen to stand in France’s 2027 presidential election, overturning the immediate ban imposed by a lower court. The court confirmed her guilt in the European Parliament fake jobs case but reduced the period of ineligibility to 45 months, with 30 months suspended. Because the effective portion had already elapsed since the first-instance conviction in March 2025, Le Pen is legally eligible to run. She has lodged an appeal with the Court of Cassation, which suspends the remaining penalties, including a one-year electronic tag, while the case is reviewed. The public prosecutor has stated that she benefits from the presumption of innocence until a final judgment is rendered.

Viewed from Paris, the decision has scrambled the strategies of rival political blocs. Centrist figures Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, both former prime ministers, are now forced to compete for a fragmented moderate electorate, with polls showing Philippe at 22% and Attal at 16% if each runs as the sole centrist candidate. On the left, Jean‑Luc Mélenchon commands 13–15%, while other left-wing candidates remain in single digits, leaving the bloc unable to consolidate a second-round berth. Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old president of Le Pen’s National Rally, had been positioned as a stand-in candidate but has returned to a secondary role, with Le Pen describing a future “winning ticket” in which she would be president and he prime minister — a scenario that would require a snap legislative election, as the next parliamentary vote is not due until 2029.

Polling data published after the ruling indicates Le Pen’s support has risen to 34–36% in first-round voting intentions, a level that analysts in London and Brussels attribute to a rallying effect among her base and the removal of legal uncertainty. Her campaign has focused on purchasing power and economic protectionism, a shift from the party’s earlier identity under her father, Jean‑Marie Le Pen, whom she expelled in 2015 and whose party she rebranded as the National Rally. European observers note that her electoral progression — from 33% in the 2017 runoff to 41% in 2022 — has made her the most formidable challenger to succeed Emmanuel Macron, who is term-limited.

The legal dossier remains open. The Court of Cassation is expected to examine the appeal in the coming months, and a final ruling could theoretically alter her eligibility before the April 2027 ballot. For now, the appeals court’s reasoning, which cited the need to protect voters’ freedom of choice and the proportionality of political rights, has given Le Pen a clear path to campaign. The next concrete step is the formal validation of candidacies by the Constitutional Council, which will take place in early 2027, while the main political formations continue to adjust their platforms in a race that, according to French electoral analysts, is now centred on whether any centrist or left-wing candidate can prevent a Le Pen presidency.