The Kremlin signalled on Tuesday that two of Donald Trump’s most trusted envoys — special representative Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner — are expected in Moscow for talks on Ukraine, but only once Washington and Tehran have signed a memorandum of understanding on Iran. The sequencing was confirmed by both presidential aide Yuri Ushakov and spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who told journalists that the Iran deal is due to be inked in Switzerland at the end of this week, most likely on Friday. “After that, the door will open for them to fly to Moscow,” Peskov said, though he cautioned that precise dates had not yet been fixed. The visit would follow a telephone conversation between Trump and Vladimir Putin on 14 June, during which the two leaders discussed the Ukraine settlement.

Viewed from Brussels, the prospect of direct US-Russia engagement without European involvement has stirred deep unease. European officials, as reported by Politico, fear that Trump may seek a bilateral grand bargain, sidelining the continent’s strategic interests and the carefully constructed transatlantic consensus on Ukraine. The anxiety is compounded by a sense that European capitals had been working to steer Washington towards their own preferred strategy, only to see the White House pivot towards a parallel track that prioritises the Iran file before returning to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump himself stated on 15 June that he wanted to focus on the Ukraine settlement once the situation with Iran had stabilised.

Moscow’s perspective is one of cautious expectation. Ushakov noted that the Kremlin is waiting for the Iran agreement to be finalised before the American negotiators can sit down with Russia’s leadership. He also pointedly remarked that he did not know whether European allies would succeed in persuading Trump to walk away from understandings reached with Putin at a previous meeting in Anchorage. The reference to Anchorage — a venue that has hosted sensitive US-Russia diplomacy in the past — underscores Moscow’s hope that the bilateral channel can be insulated from external pressure. The Kremlin’s messaging suggests it views the Iran deal as a gateway: once that diplomatic milestone is passed, the path to substantive Ukraine talks opens.

From Washington’s vantage point, the sequencing reflects a deliberate effort to compartmentalise two volatile dossiers. The Iran memorandum, negotiated intensively in recent weeks, is seen as a prerequisite for freeing up presidential bandwidth and envoy capacity. Witkoff and Kushner, both figures with deep personal ties to Trump, have been central to the administration’s unorthodox diplomatic outreach. Their expected mission to Moscow would mark the most high-profile American visit since the Anchorage encounter, and it comes at a moment when the battlefield dynamics in Ukraine remain fluid and European allies are scrambling to ensure their voice is heard.

Analysts in London note that the choreography of the coming days will be critical. If the Iran signing proceeds as planned, attention will rapidly shift to the format and substance of the Moscow talks. The absence of a fixed date for the visit leaves room for diplomatic manoeuvre, but the Kremlin’s public confirmation of the sequence signals that both sides are preparing the ground. The deeper question is whether a US-Russia bilateral framework can produce a durable settlement, and what role, if any, Europe will be permitted to play. For now, European capitals are watching anxiously as the centre of gravity in the Ukraine diplomacy tilts eastward.