The United States reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales on 7 July, scrapping a 60-day waiver that had been part of a ceasefire understanding. Yet Iran’s oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad, declared that crude exports would continue “as usual,” asserting that the structures needed to neutralise the impact of sanctions had been deliberately preserved during the suspension period. The statement, posted on Telegram, came as the US military conducted a third consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets.

Tehran’s confidence rests on a well-documented sanctions-evasion apparatus centred on a “shadow fleet” of tankers that obscure the origin and destination of cargoes. According to analysis by TankerTrackers, Iran exported roughly 50 million barrels of crude in June alone, with the vast majority moved via this clandestine network. The primary destination remains China, which has consistently absorbed Iranian barrels despite Washington’s pressure. Iranian officials argue that the 60-day waiver period did not lead to a dismantling of these mechanisms, allowing a rapid return to pre-waiver export patterns.

Viewed from Washington, the snapback of sanctions and the accompanying military strikes are a response to what the US describes as Iranian violations of the ceasefire, including attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. The US Treasury’s decision to revoke the waiver was followed by a sharp but brief spike in global oil prices, with Brent crude rising more than 3% as markets assessed the risk to supply. Analysts in London noted that the immediate price reaction reflected fears of a broader disruption to Gulf shipping lanes, though the actual loss of Iranian barrels was already largely priced in given the temporary nature of the waiver.

From Tehran’s perspective, the US action constitutes a breach of the Islamabad memorandum that underpinned the truce, and the foreign ministry has signalled it will take all necessary measures to protect its interests. The situation remains volatile: further US strikes are possible, and any Iranian retaliation targeting energy infrastructure or commercial shipping could escalate the confrontation. The next factual milestone to watch is whether Iran’s July export data confirms the oil minister’s claim of uninterrupted flows, and whether the US Treasury imposes secondary sanctions on Chinese entities facilitating the trade.