Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, issued a direct warning to Israeli soldiers via social media on Sunday, threatening a repeat of Israel’s forced withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000 if troops do not leave voluntarily. “If you do not withdraw from southern Lebanon on your own feet, the epic of the year 2000 will be repeated once again, the same year you fled this land in disgrace,” Qaani wrote, citing what he described as 100 Israeli casualties in less than four days. The message, published in Hebrew, framed the choice as one between voluntary departure and being “kicked out in humiliation and defeat.”

The warning aligns with a broader push from Tehran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah for a full Israeli pullout. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, speaking on Saturday, insisted that Israeli forces “must leave Lebanon” and warned that otherwise there would be “no safe zones” for them in the south. An adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Mohsen Rezaei, held the United States responsible for what he termed Israeli “aggressions and provocations” in Lebanon. From Washington, President Donald Trump threatened on Sunday to direct “stronger strikes” against Iran if it did not curb its allies in Lebanon, calling on Tehran to halt “destabilising activities.” Israeli military chief of staff Eyal Zamir, meanwhile, described the current ceasefire as “very fragile” and ordered forces to maintain high readiness for a rapid return to offensive operations.

The military posturing unfolds against a diplomatic backdrop. US and Iranian delegations met in Switzerland with Pakistan and Qatar acting as mediators, where the situation in Lebanon was a central topic. According to a statement from the mediators, Iran conditioned further talks with Washington and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on an end to Israeli military operations on Lebanese territory. The parties subsequently agreed to form a conflict prevention group comprising the United States, Iran, and Lebanon, with the mediators assisting its work. The group’s stated aim is to secure a halt to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.

The IRGC commander’s threat underscores the fragility of the ceasefire and the depth of the linkage Tehran asserts between Israeli actions in Lebanon and the broader US-Iran diplomatic track. The newly announced conflict prevention group offers an institutional channel, but its viability remains untested amid ongoing ceasefire violations and the absence of a formal Israeli withdrawal. The next concrete step is expected to be the convening of that group, though no date has been set. For now, the dossier remains suspended between escalatory rhetoric and a tentative diplomatic mechanism.