Iran’s foreign minister has assessed the probability of reaching a peaceful settlement with the United States at roughly 10 percent, yet Tehran is determined to keep diplomatic channels open. In an interview published on 19 July, Abbas Araghchi stated that negotiations remain a strategic tool to secure Iran’s demands while preventing armed conflict, and that even a slim chance must be seized. “We said that even if there is only a 10 percent chance of achieving an outcome other than war through negotiations, we must take that opportunity,” he said, according to remarks carried by multiple regional news agencies.

Viewed from Tehran, the talks serve a dual purpose. Araghchi explained that if diplomacy fails, Iran will have demonstrated to its adversaries, the international community and its own population that every possible peaceful avenue was exhausted before any further escalation. The foreign minister linked the current impasse directly to Washington’s insistence on “zero enrichment” — a demand Iranian officials describe as unlawful and unreasonable. According to Araghchi, the United States entered negotiations before the latest round of hostilities with that precondition, and when Tehran refused to comply, the US and Israel abandoned diplomacy and launched a large-scale military operation on 28 February. That assault, which Iranian sources say killed the country’s supreme leader and senior commanders, triggered retaliatory drone and missile strikes against Gulf states hosting American military assets.

The conflict has since lurched through cycles of violence and brief diplomatic openings. A memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistan last month aimed to halt the fighting and lay the groundwork for a lasting peace agreement, but tensions reignited within weeks over the Strait of Hormuz, where both sides exchanged fire. Araghchi told interviewers that Iran was not caught off guard by the February offensive and had prepared for all scenarios. He argued that the US and Israel made two critical miscalculations: first, that a short military campaign would destroy Iran’s capabilities and force its surrender, and second, after a separate 12-day war in June 2025, that Iran’s resilience had been exhausted. Instead, he said, the Islamic Republic’s ability to strike across the region and the population’s continued support for the system compelled the adversaries to halt operations, transforming the regional security architecture.

In a separate account of his exchanges with US envoy Steve Witkoff, Araghchi described rejecting both threats and inducements, including an American offer to build power plants in return for concessions. “I said no bribes, no threats. You can only threaten someone who’s afraid,” he recounted, adding that Iranian negotiators operate with the expectation that they could be targeted at any moment. The foreign minister drew a contrast with the US operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, asserting that Iran would not be cowed by similar tactics. With the 10 percent assessment now on the table, the diplomatic track remains formally alive but under immense strain. No new round of talks has been announced, and the risk of further military confrontation across the Gulf waterways persists.