Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking in Baghdad alongside Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, declared that the Strait of Hormuz would remain under Iran’s “total oversight and management” for the next 30 days and warned that any attempt to create alternative shipping corridors without Tehran’s consent would complicate the situation, delay the strait’s full reopening and increase tensions. His remarks were directed at vessels using a southern passage close to Oman that, according to Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) statements, was announced by Oman and the International Maritime Organization without consulting Tehran. The IRGC said it was taking measures to control traffic and would respond more firmly to vessels that disregarded Iranian instructions. The warning followed a weekend of reciprocal military action: US Central Command said it struck ten Iranian military targets in response to “continued Iranian aggression against commercial shipping”, while Iran reported launching retaliatory strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Washington and Tehran offered starkly contrasting interpretations of the memorandum of understanding that underpins the ceasefire. President Donald Trump wrote that US aircraft had struck Iranian missile, drone and radar sites for violating the ceasefire “AGAIN!”, and warned that Iran would “no longer exist” if the United States were forced to resume the war. US officials insist the agreement requires Iran to ensure safe passage without charges for 60 days, and Trump has publicly underscored there must be “no tolls, no insurance costs”. Iranian leaders, however, maintain that under the MoU the strait is placed under exclusive Iranian supervision for an initial 30-day period, with no role for outside powers. Adviser to the supreme leader Mohammad Mokhber wrote that as long as Iran managed the waterway, Washington’s “hegemonic dreams in the region will not be realised”. Iraq’s foreign minister, standing alongside Araghchi, denounced any expansion of war and attacks on Iran, and proposed a regional security dialogue involving Gulf states, Iran and Iraq that would explicitly exclude external actors.

The dispute over shipping corridors threatens to unravel the Pakistan-brokered accord that ended the US-Israeli-Iran war in February. Although a ceasefire took effect in April, intermittent violence in the Gulf has persisted, often triggered by incidents around the strait. The MoU’s language on strait administration remains contested: Iran interprets it as granting Tehran exclusive management, while the United States and its allies have sought to assert freedom of navigation through multiple lanes. Analysts in London note that Iran may see a drawn-out negotiation accompanied by controlled tension in the strait as strategically advantageous. The waterway normally carries around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, and energy markets remain sensitive to any sign of prolonged disruption.

The Baghdad visit also served to coordinate funeral ceremonies for Iran’s late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed on the first day of the war, with processions planned across Iraqi holy cities in July. Iraq, which previously mediated between Tehran and Washington, now finds itself again trying to contain the fallout; Baghdad has offered to host a summit of Gulf states, Iran and Iraq. The viability of the current accord will likely be tested in the coming days as commercial shippers decide which corridor to use and both sides continue to exchange accusations of ceasefire violations.