The arrival of US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in New Delhi on Tuesday for two days of high-level discussions marks a decisive phase in efforts to conclude an interim trade agreement before a temporary 10 per cent US tariff on all trading partners expires on 24 July. Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stated on Monday that New Delhi is “trying to work out” terms that grant its exporters a comparative advantage over regional competitors, including ASEAN economies such as Vietnam. The two sides had agreed in February on a framework involving 18 per cent tariffs on Indian goods in exchange for lower Indian trade barriers and increased purchases of American products, but a final deal was delayed after the US Supreme Court struck down the broad-based tariff measures underpinning that understanding.

According to Indian officials, the negotiations are now complicated by an ongoing US Section 301 investigation into alleged excess industrial capacity and forced labour, which Washington is using to press India to further open its agricultural and other markets and to buy more US energy and defence equipment. A separate US proposal under the same investigation would impose additional duties of up to 12.5 per cent on imports from India and several other countries, a measure that Indian garment industry executives say will raise compliance costs and erode already thin margins without offering any competitive edge over China. The US Trade Representative’s office has described the objective of the talks as achieving “fair, balanced, and reciprocal” trade.

The India-US negotiations are unfolding amid a broader recalibration of trade relationships as countries seek to mitigate exposure to US tariff actions and secure alternative market access. Viewed from Brasília, the Brazilian government — itself facing US Section 301 tariffs on manufactured goods — has accelerated trade talks with the European Union, the EFTA bloc, Canada, Mexico, and Japan, aiming to reduce dependence on both the US and China. In Jakarta, the head of Indonesia’s chamber of commerce led a delegation to Beijing to boost bilateral trade, noting that Indonesia’s $168 billion in trade with China trails that of Vietnam and Malaysia. From Rabat, Morocco’s investment minister pitched the kingdom to Chinese firms as a manufacturing and logistics platform with access to African markets, citing $2 billion dirhams in Chinese foreign direct investment in 2025.

The urgency of the Greer-Goyal talks is heightened by the expiration of the temporary US tariff regime on 24 July, after which a new tariff framework must be in place. While a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France last week signalled political momentum, the legal and procedural complications introduced by the Supreme Court ruling and the Section 301 probes leave key terms unresolved. Indian officials have indicated they also seek assurances that Washington will not impose fresh tariffs after a deal is signed. The first phase of the broader Bilateral Trade Agreement is targeted for conclusion by mid-July, with the current round of talks expected to give final shape to the framework.