Russian gasoline output has dropped to a level covering only 65 percent of peak summer consumption, leaving a daily deficit of 40,000 to 45,000 tonnes, according to industry sources and calculations by the Reuters news agency. The shortfall, which stood at 25 percent in June, has triggered long queues at filling stations across multiple regions and prompted the deployment of Cossack groups to maintain order at some sites. Daily demand during the summer driving season is estimated at 115,000 to 120,000 tonnes.

The production collapse follows a sustained Ukrainian drone campaign against Russia’s energy infrastructure. Strikes have forced the shutdown of major refineries, including the NORSI and Omsk plants—the country’s two largest gasoline producers—as well as the Saratov refinery. Damage to primary and secondary processing units has reduced overall refining capacity by between 20 and 40 percent, Western energy analysts estimate. Kyiv’s military describes the operations as an effort to undermine Moscow’s war effort by disrupting fuel supplies and economic stability.

Viewed from Moscow, the government has responded with a series of emergency measures. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak publicly acknowledged a fuel deficit and linked it directly to drone strikes, a shift from earlier official explanations that emphasised logistical bottlenecks and panic buying. Export bans on gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are in force until at least 31 July. Russia has begun importing fuel, with deliveries from Belarus reaching a record 6,000 tonnes per day in June and seaborne shipments arriving from India. Stockpiles are also being drawn down. Novak said authorities are working to strengthen the protection of refineries and to increase fuel deliveries to the regions.

Industry sources expect the situation to improve in the second half of July, provided no new attacks occur, as damaged refineries resume operations and imports rise. The International Energy Agency has revised down its forecast for Russian oil production, citing drone strikes on transport infrastructure and refineries. The next factual milestone is the expiry of the export bans at the end of July, alongside the pace of refinery repairs and any further Ukrainian strikes.