Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, shattering months of relative calm along the route and sending Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time since May. The benchmark settled 7 per cent higher on the day and was trading at $101.06 early Friday, heading for a 14.6 per cent weekly gain. West Texas Intermediate rose to $91.20, its highest since mid-June. The immediate catalyst was the Houthi claim of responsibility—the first reported attack on vessels since it declared a naval blockade of Saudi-linked shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb strait days earlier.

The strike compounds a supply crisis that began when the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut earlier this month. According to vessel-tracking data from Kpler, only one tanker crossed Hormuz on Thursday, the lowest daily count since 7 May. In response, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had been using the Red Sea route as a relief valve, piping crude to terminals outside the Gulf to bypass the Iranian blockade. Analysts at ING note those alternative flows—roughly 6.8 million barrels a day, or half the volume that used to transit Hormuz—are now at direct risk. Jorge León of Rystad Energy described the Bab el-Mandeb as “particularly vulnerable,” warning that a full closure would represent a “double blow” to global energy markets already grappling with the loss of Gulf exports.

Further straining supply, Kazakhstan’s main Black Sea export terminal suspended loadings after suspected Ukrainian drone attacks, forcing the country’s largest field to slash output by more than half. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium route normally handles about 2 per cent of daily global crude flows. On the geopolitical front, President Trump said he was considering a “massive attack” on Iran, prompting Tehran to warn that any nation assisting Washington would be held accountable. In consumer markets, the effects are filtering through unevenly. Average US petrol prices rose to $4.09 a gallon, up 17 cents from a month ago. German motorists are paying nearly €2.15 a litre for petrol, a 33-cent jump from the recent trough that followed a provisional peace deal. India’s state-run oil companies have so far absorbed the cost, leaving pump prices largely unchanged. In Argentina, higher crude prices could add an estimated $5 billion to hydrocarbon export revenues, though YPF has signalled no immediate fuel-price increase.

The market now watches for any escalation that could fully interdict the southern route. The combination of the Hormuz closure and the Houthi campaign has concentrated risk in the one remaining chokepoint, with analysts warning that sustained disruption could push Brent toward $120 by the fourth quarter. The next indicator will be the US response—whether the Trump administration pursues direct strikes on Iranian territory or opts for calibrated military pressure alongside renewed diplomatic overtures.