Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 12 commodity vessels on Sunday, down from 29 the previous day and a peak of 70 earlier in the week, after a commercial ship was struck while transiting the waterway on Saturday. The sharp decline, recorded by maritime tracking firm Kpler, followed a fresh exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran that strained the preliminary memorandum of understanding signed on 15 June. The weekend’s events reversed a tentative recovery that had seen daily crossings rise to their highest level since the conflict began on 28 February, when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps effectively closed the strait.

Viewed from Washington, the attack on a vessel using a southern corridor through Omani waters was a breach of the ceasefire that required a military response. US President Donald Trump described the incident as a “foolish” violation and ordered strikes against Iran on Saturday. A US official later told CBS News that both sides had agreed to “stand down” and allow ships to move freely again, and Trump announced on social media that Iran had requested a meeting in Doha. Iranian officials, however, denied that any talks were scheduled, and Tehran’s foreign ministry insisted that only its approved northern shipping lane was legitimate, warning that alternative routes would “complicate the situation” and delay the strait’s reopening.

The dispute over routing and fees remains the central obstacle. The 15 June memorandum commits Iran to use its “best efforts” to ensure safe passage without charge for 60 days, but Iranian officials have since raised the prospect of introducing service fees once that period expires. Oman, which co-chaired the first meeting of a Joint Hormuz Committee with Iran on Monday, initially signalled that no passage fees were planned, then announced a temporary maritime corridor near its coast coordinated with the United Nations — a move Iran rejected. Shipping analysts note that the Iranian-approved route passes through tighter choke points around Iranian islands, making a return to pre-war traffic levels of 130–140 vessels per day unlikely even if the ceasefire holds.

The immediate consequence is a continued depression of transit volumes far below normal, with vessels avoiding the middle international route due to the threat of Iranian mines. A UN-led operation to evacuate 11,000 seafarers stranded in the Gulf was suspended after a separate vessel strike in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday. Brent crude edged up 0.92% to $72.78. The chief executive of Japan’s NYK Line warned that the strait would operate at less than half of pre-war levels for months. With the 60-day toll-free period ticking down and no agreement on permanent administration, the dossier remains open, and the next concrete step is the uncertain resumption of US-Iran discussions, which Washington says will take place in Doha but Tehran has not confirmed.