On 26 June, Israel, Lebanon and the United States signed a trilateral framework agreement in Washington designed to end months of hostilities and establish a path towards lasting peace. Within hours, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem declared the accord “null and void”, and the following day an Israeli drone struck a target near Nabatieh in southern Lebanon, killing one person. The deal, negotiated without Hezbollah’s participation, makes Israeli military redeployment contingent on the verified disarmament of non-state armed groups.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the agreement as “historic” and “a blow to Iran and Hezbollah”, insisting that Israeli forces would remain in a self-declared security zone up to 10 km inside Lebanese territory until the group disarms. Defence Minister Israel Katz later ordered troops to prepare for an extended stay. From Beirut, President Joseph Aoun framed the accord as “a first step” towards restoring full sovereignty, while Lebanon’s ambassador to Washington said it would enable displaced civilians to return. Hezbollah’s Qassem, however, accused the Lebanese government of a “grave misstep” that legitimised occupation and could lead to annexation, demanding instead the implementation of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed earlier this month. Protests by Hezbollah supporters erupted in Beirut overnight, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a key ally, warned against internal strife.

The framework’s text, released by the US State Department, outlines a “reciprocal, sequenced process” in which the Lebanese Armed Forces would assume security control in two initial pilot zones after the confirmed disarmament of non-state armed groups there. A classified security annex details verification mechanisms. Analysts in Beirut note that the arrangement effectively conditions any Israeli withdrawal on Hezbollah’s consent to disarm, a demand the group has repeatedly rejected. The Israeli drone strike on Saturday, which the military said targeted an individual posing a threat to its forces, demonstrated that Israel intends to continue kinetic operations regardless of the diplomatic track. Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah warned that implementing the deal could lead to civil war.

The conflict was triggered on 2 March when Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s supreme leader in US-Israeli strikes. Israel’s subsequent air campaign and ground invasion have killed over 4,200 people in Lebanon and displaced more than a million, Lebanese authorities say. A ceasefire declared on 17 April collapsed, and violence subsided only after the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was reached last week. Tehran has insisted that any broader settlement must include Lebanon, while the Lebanese government has sought to keep its negotiations with Israel separate. The US has committed $100 million in humanitarian assistance and $30 million to reimburse the Lebanese army, and a US-facilitated military working group is to be established to support implementation. With Hezbollah vowing to continue armed resistance and Israel maintaining its security zone, the agreement’s next steps hinge on a disarmament process that neither the Lebanese state nor external guarantors have yet shown they can enforce.