The final act of Group L unfolds with two matches kicking off in unison, a scheduling quirk that concentrates the tension across the eastern seaboard of the United States. In Philadelphia, Croatia and Ghana meet with the second automatic qualification place at stake, while 90 miles north in New Jersey, England face an already-eliminated Panama knowing that victory would secure top spot. The arithmetic is stark: Ghana, level on four points with England but trailing on goal difference, need only a draw to advance directly; Croatia, on three points, must win to be certain of avoiding the lottery of the best third-placed finishers.

Ghana’s campaign has been built on defensive obduracy. Carlos Queiroz’s side are yet to concede a goal in the tournament, having followed a 1-0 win over Panama with a goalless stalemate against England that frustrated Thomas Tuchel’s attack for long stretches. Analysts in Accra point to the team’s organisation and physical resilience, qualities that also underpinned their qualifying campaign. The Black Stars have already been congratulated by their own federation for securing a round-of-32 berth, but the incentive to avoid a meeting with a group winner in the next phase is considerable. A draw would likely set up a clash with the runner-up from Group K, while defeat could drop them into a path that includes the group winner.

Croatia’s route to this juncture has been more turbulent. A 4-2 defeat by England on the opening day exposed defensive frailties, particularly at set-pieces, and prompted head coach Zlatko Dalić to describe it as the worst such performance of his nine-year tenure. A narrow 1-0 victory over Panama, secured by Ante Budimir’s goal, steadied nerves but did not fully convince. Luka Modrić, now 40, remains the creative fulcrum, yet the squad’s ageing profile is a persistent concern in Zagreb. The Vatreni have never lost to an African side at a World Cup, a record they must preserve to keep their tournament alive.

England’s situation is the most comfortable, though not without its irritants. The 4-2 demolition of Croatia showcased attacking verve, but the subsequent 0-0 draw with Ghana revived questions about Tuchel’s squad selection and the team’s ability to break down a low block. Injuries to Reece James and a knock to Declan Rice have added a layer of uncertainty. Still, viewed from London, the expectation is that a full-strength side featuring Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham will have too much firepower for a Panama team that has lost both matches 1-0 and is still seeking its first point at this World Cup. The central Americans, for their part, are determined to avoid a repeat of the 6-1 drubbing England inflicted on them in 2018.

Once the final whistles sound, the group winner will head to Atlanta to face a third-placed side, most likely Ecuador, while the runner-up will meet the second-placed team from Group K — either Portugal or Colombia. The third-placed finisher, if it advances as one of the eight best, would be thrown into a meeting with the Group K winner. For Croatia, the margin of victory or defeat could be as decisive as the result itself, with goal difference poised to act as the ultimate arbiter in a group that has delivered few goals and plenty of caution.