The U.S. Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, on Wednesday sketched a two-stage timetable for the review of the North American trade pact, telling the Senate Finance Committee that he aims to present “interim arrangements” to the White House, Ottawa and Mexico City before the end of 2026. The more complex chapters—including tighter automotive rules of origin, labour enforcement and environmental standards—would be deferred until 2027. The announcement provides a measure of short-term predictability for the $1.6 trillion trilateral trading relationship, even as it confirms that a comprehensive overhaul remains distant.

The approach follows Washington’s 1 July decision not to renew the USMCA for a fresh 16-year term, a move that activated annual rolling reviews and raised the prospect of the pact’s expiry in 2036. Greer framed the interim deals as a way to lock in progress on less contentious issues while buying time for Congress and the three governments to tackle structural questions. His testimony came hours before he departed for Mexico City, where a third round of bilateral talks is under way, and as President Donald Trump threatened 50 per cent tariffs on a range of Canadian goods—a step Greer defended as an effort to “rebalance” trade, not sever it.

In Mexico City, the two-phase plan aligns with a pragmatic negotiating stance. President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed she would receive Greer at the National Palace on Thursday, and Mexican officials have signalled they expect a deal this year. In Ottawa, the tariff threat—set to take effect on 19 August—has rattled business groups and prompted Ontario Premier Doug Ford to call for dollar-for-dollar retaliation. Canada’s Trade Minister, Dominic LeBlanc, said detailed proposals have been tabled, while Greer acknowledged under questioning that a “small handful” of Canadian products would face higher duties than Chinese imports if the levies proceed.

The immediate focus now shifts to the Greer-Sheinbaum meeting and the parallel track of tariff diplomacy with Canada. While the end-of-year target for interim accords offers a diplomatic off-ramp, the harder negotiations on rules of origin and labour standards will test the trilateral relationship well into 2027. The next concrete milestone is the 19 August deadline for the proposed Canadian tariffs, a date that will signal whether Washington intends to use trade remedy tools as leverage alongside the formal USMCA review.