Spot gold steadied near $4,175 per ounce on Monday, holding close to its highest level since 22 June, after a sharper-than-expected slowdown in US job creation prompted financial markets to trim bets on near-term monetary tightening. The metal recorded a weekly gain of more than 2% last week, snapping a four-week losing streak, as data showing payroll growth decelerated sharply in June and prior months’ figures were revised lower signalled a cooling labour market.

The shift in rate expectations is the primary mechanism supporting prices. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see a roughly 55% probability of a rate increase in September, down from over 60% before the employment report. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. However, a concurrent 0.2% rise in the US dollar index capped further gains, making dollar-denominated bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, described the market as being in a consolidation phase, noting that gold is attempting to build a base with support in the $3,900–$4,000 range while facing resistance ahead of the 200-day moving average at $4,485.

Among other precious metals, spot silver edged lower to around $62.12 per ounce after touching its highest since 23 June, while platinum and palladium posted modest moves. Analysts at J.P. Morgan in New York cautioned that demand from key sectors is likely to be weaker than previously anticipated, limiting price upside to $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and $4,500 in the fourth.

Investor attention now turns to the minutes of the Fed’s 16–17 June policy meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, due for release on Wednesday. Market participants in financial centres from London to Singapore will scrutinise the record for further clues on the trajectory of interest rates and the central bank’s assessment of labour market resilience.