Spot gold advanced to $4,129.43 per ounce on Wednesday, a two-week peak, as investors combined technical buying after last week’s steep decline with a reassessment of risks emanating from the Middle East. U.S. gold futures for August delivery jumped 1.4% to $4,134.50. The move reversed the metal’s largest weekly drop since early June, which had been triggered by fears that persistent inflation would force central banks to keep interest rates elevated.

The immediate catalyst was a fresh disruption to energy shipping. Two tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia altered course in the Red Sea on Tuesday following threats from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, narrowing two of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. Brent crude rose more than 1% to trade near six-week highs, amplifying inflation concerns that directly feed into the Federal Reserve’s policy calculus. In parallel, Iran’s interior minister visited Pakistan and asked Islamabad to continue mediation efforts, a signal viewed in some regional capitals that diplomatic channels remain open even as Washington’s secretary of state said Tehran was not serious about talks.

A Reuters poll of economists published this week showed the median forecast expects the Fed to hold its benchmark rate steady through the end of 2026. However, a separate question within the same survey revealed a marked shift: a majority of respondents now describe the probability of a rate hike this year as “high,” a reversal from the previous month when most assessed it as “low.” For gold, which yields no income, a higher-for-longer rate environment raises the opportunity cost of holding the metal, creating a tension between its role as an inflation hedge and the drag from tighter monetary policy.

Other precious metals followed gold higher. Spot silver gained 1.6% to $59.71 an ounce, platinum added 1.9% to $1,659.97, and palladium rose 2.2% to $1,310.50. The next factual milestone for markets is the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week, where the statement and chair’s remarks will be parsed for any adjustment to the rate outlook in light of energy-driven price pressures and the widening Middle East conflict.