Paraguay and Morocco delivered the tournament’s first seismic shocks, ejecting Germany and the Netherlands on penalties in the last 32. Viewed from European capitals, the exits have recast the knockout bracket, leaving England acutely aware that a similar fate awaits if they falter against DR Congo in Atlanta. Thomas Tuchel, speaking on the eve of the match, acknowledged the narrow margins that have defined the round so far. “The games speak a very clear language,” the German said. “It’s narrow, narrow margins.” England will be without injured right-backs Reece James and Jarell Quansah, placing further weight on the attacking duo of Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane to break down a Congolese defence that frustrated Portugal during the group stage.

DR Congo arrive at the knockout phase for the first time, having progressed as one of the best third-placed teams. The squad, assembled through extensive scouting of the diaspora, features 20 players born outside the country—predominantly in France—including Premier League forward Yoane Wissa and former England youth internationals Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Axel Tuanzebe. Coach Sébastien Desabre, a Frenchman, has framed the occasion as a success already achieved. “Our World Cup is already a success relative to our goals,” he said. “The pressure is on the England team.” Analysts in Kinshasa note that the Leopards’ compact defensive structure, which held Portugal to a single goal, is designed to exploit the tension that has historically accompanied England in knockout ties.

Across the continent, the co-hosts face a moment of comparable magnitude. The United States meet Bosnia-Herzegovina in a primetime fixture in the San Francisco Bay Area, with projections of up to 30 million domestic viewers. It is the nation’s first knockout match in almost a quarter of a century, and midfielder Gio Reyna articulated the stakes: “Everyone knows in the back of our minds what this could do for this country.” Coach Mauricio Pochettino has a full-strength squad available, including Christian Pulisic, and the team has built what insiders describe as considerable self-belief through the group stage. Bosnia-Herzegovina, competing in only their second World Cup and first knockout round, have already exceeded expectations under Sergej Barbarez, with veteran Edin Džeko carrying much of the attacking burden.

Elsewhere, Belgium’s so-called golden generation faces a severe examination of ageing legs against Senegal in Seattle. Rudi Garcia’s side have oscillated between a 5-1 demolition of New Zealand and sterile draws with Egypt and Iran, raising questions about the consistency of an attack led by Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku. Senegal, meanwhile, recovered from opening defeats to France and Norway by thrashing Iraq 5-0, with Ismaïla Sarr becoming the nation’s all-time World Cup top scorer with four goals. On Tuesday, Kylian Mbappé struck twice as France eased past Sweden 3-0, his sixth goal of the tournament, before the squad embraced coach Didier Deschamps in a gesture of solidarity following the death of his mother. Erling Haaland’s close-range finish carried Norway into the last 16 for the first time, a 2-1 victory over Ivory Coast sealing their passage.

The results set up a round of 16 in which the established order has already been disrupted. England’s path, should they advance, would likely intersect with the USA or Belgium, while France and Norway await their next opponents with growing confidence. For now, the focus remains on Atlanta and San Francisco, where two nations with long and divergent football histories confront the immediate, unforgiving arithmetic of the knockout stage.