The immediate political future of France’s nationalist right will be determined next Tuesday, when an appeals court rules whether Marine Le Pen can stand in the 2027 presidential election. French judicial authorities are expected to decide if a previous conviction for misusing European parliamentary funds—and the accompanying ban on holding public office—will be upheld or suspended. The verdict arrives as the country enters a prolonged pre-electoral stasis, with major reforms effectively frozen since the dissolution of the National Assembly in mid-2024.

Even as that decision approaches, the Rassemblement National faces a separate, active investigation by the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. European prosecutors confirmed they are examining the use of EU funds by the former Identity and Democracy group in the Strasbourg parliament between 2019 and 2024, a grouping in which Le Pen’s party sat alongside other nationalist delegations. On Tuesday, investigators conducted searches at the offices and private homes of communication providers linked to the party, a move confirmed by RN president Jordan Bardella. Viewed from Brussels, the parallel probes reinforce a pattern of institutional scrutiny over the management of parliamentary resources by eurosceptic forces.

A similar dynamic is unfolding in Germany, where law enforcement authorities in North Rhine-Westphalia raided the headquarters of the German Football Association and several host-city administrations on Wednesday. German prosecutors allege that officials from the Euro 2024 organising body, a joint venture between the German FA and UEFA, granted unauthorised advantages—including match tickets—to at least one municipal employee. Investigators suspect that several thousand tickets may have been allocated internally to favoured guests outside legal channels. The probe, which involved over 150 officers, targets a 66-year-old German national and a 46-year-old French national, though no formal charges have been filed and the presumption of innocence remains.

Separately, a war of nerves within the French state is complicating efforts to resolve a consular standoff with Algiers. An Algerian consular employee has been held in French custody since mid-April 2025, a move Algerian officials view as a breach of diplomatic norms. French government circles, reportedly backed by President Emmanuel Macron, have signalled a possible breakthrough involving a swap with a French journalist imprisoned in Algeria on terrorism-related charges. However, that prospect has triggered a counter-offensive from right-wing media figures and elements of the French deep state, who frame any exchange as capitulation. The journalist’s family has repeatedly asked that the case not be politicised, yet the public debate has intensified, with commentators previously active in the Boualem Sansal affair now inserting themselves into the Gleizes dossier. The next concrete step in the Franco-Algerian channel remains unconfirmed, while the Le Pen verdict and the widening European probes ensure that legal and diplomatic fault lines will dominate the French and German political landscape through the autumn.