The Council of the European Union, meeting in its Foreign Affairs configuration, approved a strategic environment report on Monday that identifies China’s “increasingly assertive behaviour” in the Indo-Pacific as a “critical long-term strategic challenge” to European security. The document, entitled “Common Understanding — The Threats and Challenges We Face”, states that a change of the status quo around the Taiwan Strait would have a “profound impact on global security” and that the security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific are “more interlinked than ever”. Taiwan’s foreign ministry welcomed the EU’s acknowledgement, stating that Beijing’s military and coercive actions in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea and South China Sea, as well as its sustained support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, have drawn global concern. The ministry added that Taiwan would continue to work with the EU and “like-minded partners” to defend the rules-based international order.

Viewed from Madrid, the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE) has published a parallel analysis of the Mediterranean’s transformation into a space of global rivalry, placing Morocco at the centre of energy, connectivity and influence competition. The IEEE report notes that China’s trade with Arab states in the region reached approximately $393.75 billion in 2023, with Chinese investment extending into ports, infrastructure and digital networks. Morocco’s diplomatic autonomy — exemplified by its abstention on the 2022 UN General Assembly vote condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — is described as a “strategic prudence” that enhances its value to European partners, particularly Spain, which depends on Rabat for maritime security, supply chains and energy interconnection. The report warns that treating the southern Mediterranean merely as an extraction or transit zone risks undermining long-term socio-economic stability. In parallel, Egypt and Turkey are deepening their own security and defence cooperation after a decade of estrangement. According to Egyptian and Turkish analysts, joint military exercises such as “Golden Eagle” and “Anatolian Eagle”, a recent visit by Egypt’s defence minister to Ankara, and the signing of a letter of intent on defence industrial integration reflect a shared interest in stabilising the region following the Gaza war and the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and its allies. Both sides describe the rapprochement as a pragmatic alignment rather than a formal alliance, driven by the need to secure Red Sea navigation, Eastern Mediterranean energy infrastructure and coordinate on Libya and Gaza.

In Southeast Asia, the focus remains on institutional mechanisms to manage great-power competition. A member of the South China Sea Council, Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, urged ASEAN and China to accelerate negotiations on a Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea, calling it the “most realistic step” to maintain regional stability. Speaking from Jakarta, he argued that a decade after the Philippines’ arbitral ruling, tensions and maritime incidents have increased, and that attention should shift from legal disputes to crisis management, strengthening ASEAN centrality and preventing the politicisation and formation of geopolitical blocs in the South China Sea.

In Turkey, the prospect of renewed US arms transfers — including potential F-35 fighter jets or engines for the indigenous KAAN programme — is being read in Ankara as an attempt by Washington to re-anchor Turkey within the Western security architecture. Turkish analysts note that the US recalibration is driven by the war in Ukraine, the strategic importance of the Black Sea and NATO cohesion, rather than a resolution of all bilateral disputes. The S-400 air defence system acquired from Russia remains a test case. Ankara, they say, seeks to regain access to Western defence technology without abandoning the diversified partnerships it has cultivated with Moscow and others. Israeli concerns about the impact on its qualitative military edge are acknowledged in regional analyses, but the US is seen as managing both alliances simultaneously rather than choosing between them. The EU report is expected to inform the bloc’s forthcoming strategic compass update, while COC negotiations are set to continue at the next ASEAN-China summit. The US-Turkey defence dialogue remains ongoing, with no final agreement on F-35s announced.