The European Commission proposed on Friday to extend temporary protection for Ukrainians fleeing the war until March 2028, but with a new restriction: newly arriving men of conscription age (23–60) and others barred from leaving Ukraine under martial law will generally be denied the status. The measure, which must be approved by member states, responds to a direct request from the Ukrainian government, which has struggled with military recruitment as the conflict with Russia enters its fifth year.

EU Internal Affairs Commissioner Magnus Brunner stated that the change aims to “align temporary protection with Ukraine’s overall ability to defend itself against Russia’s illegal war of aggression.” He confirmed that Kyiv had asked for the restriction. Several EU governments, notably Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic – which host the largest numbers of Ukrainian refugees – had earlier signalled support for tightening the rules. However, the Council of Europe’s Commissioner for Human Rights, Michael O’Flaherty, warned that blanket exclusions raise human rights concerns and called for individual assessments, particularly for conscientious objectors. The Commission noted that those affected could still apply for asylum, though evading conscription is not a valid ground for protection.

The restriction will apply only to future arrivals; the roughly 4.4 million Ukrainians already under temporary protection, including adult men who make up 26.7 per cent of the total, retain their status. The proposal also urges member states to prepare for a coordinated transition away from temporary protection, either toward longer-term legal residency or, when conditions allow, voluntary return. A pilot programme will offer practical information on jobs, housing and education to those considering going back, though the Commission stressed that safe and durable return is not yet feasible for most.

The proposal now moves to the Council of the EU, where it requires a qualified majority – at least 15 member states representing 65 per cent of the bloc’s population – for adoption. Diplomats in Brussels expect the measure to pass, given the broad political backing from capitals and the explicit request from Kyiv. If approved, the extended protection with the new exclusion clause would take effect before the current regime expires in March 2027.