Mexico’s annual inflation fell to 3.10 per cent in the first half of July, down from 3.37 per cent in June and back within the central bank’s target range of 3 per cent plus or minus one percentage point. The decline was driven by a 1.50 per cent drop in fruit and vegetable prices, with tomatoes falling 13.18 per cent, alongside lower hotel rates and a slight reduction in domestic LP gas. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items, edged up to 3.95 per cent. The data reinforces the Banco de México’s decision to hold its benchmark rate at 6.50 per cent in June, with policymakers in Mexico City signalling a prolonged pause until they see sustained convergence to the target.

In Argentina, consumer confidence moved in the opposite direction. The Torcuato Di Tella university index dropped 4.78 per cent month-on-month in July and 12.30 per cent year-on-year, extending a slide that has erased 14.16 per cent of its value since a January 2025 peak. The deterioration was broad-based across regions and income groups, but households with lower incomes suffered a monthly fall of 11.47 per cent, widening the gap with higher-income households to 7.46 points. The sub-index measuring perceptions of the macroeconomic situation fell 8.49 per cent, and expectations for the future dropped 7.19 per cent, indicating that Argentines see little near-term relief from the country’s prolonged economic strain.

Brazil presented a more mixed picture. The Intention to Consume of Families index rose 0.1 per cent in July, its ninth consecutive monthly increase, to 105.6 points, though it remains 8.7 per cent below the level of a year earlier. The advance was led by a 1.1 per cent gain in the consumption outlook component, while the professional perspective fell 1.3 per cent. The current consumption level remains below the satisfaction threshold at 93 points. Meanwhile, the weekly IPC-S inflation gauge decelerated to 0.07 per cent in the third quadrissemana of July, helped by a 0.73 per cent drop in food prices, suggesting that easing price pressures are gradually supporting household purchasing power.

Russia, by contrast, is grappling with accelerating inflation. Weekly consumer prices rose 0.17 per cent in mid-July, pushing the year-to-date increase to 4.82 per cent, above the 4.36 per cent recorded a year earlier. Fuel costs are a key driver: gasoline has risen 18.3 per cent since January and diesel 20.16 per cent, feeding into broader price expectations. Household inflation expectations for the year ahead jumped to 14.7 per cent in July from 12.4 per cent in June. Yet some Moscow-based analysts argue the central bank could still cut its key rate, viewing the fuel shock as a supply-side disruption that monetary policy cannot directly address. The next rate decisions in Mexico City, Brasília, and Moscow will test how each central bank balances price data against growth concerns.