Morocco’s annual consumer-price inflation slowed to 1.2 per cent in May from 1.7 per cent in April, official data showed on Monday, marking the lowest reading in more than a year. The decline was driven by a 0.7 per cent year-on-year drop in food prices, with vegetables tumbling 8.6 per cent month on month, while non-food inflation held at 2.6 per cent, lifted by an 8.1 per cent jump in transport costs. The monthly index fell 0.9 per cent, giving the central bank, Bank al-Maghrib, additional room to keep interest rates steady as it monitors whether the disinflationary trend proves durable.

Elsewhere, price pressures pointed in the opposite direction. In Oman, the consumer price index rose 3.8 per cent in May compared with a year earlier, propelled by a 9.6 per cent increase in personal goods and services and a 9.2 per cent rise in transport, according to the National Centre for Statistics and Information. Ghana’s producer inflation, a leading indicator of pipeline price pressures, jumped to 5.8 per cent in May from 2.7 per cent in April, driven by an 11 per cent surge in mining and quarrying, where crude oil extraction costs soared 18.8 per cent. The statistical service in Accra called for tighter supply-chain monitoring to head off a pass-through to consumer prices. Lebanon’s annual inflation remained elevated at 19.04 per cent, though the monthly increase was a modest 0.48 per cent, with data collection in the southern Nabatieh governorate relying heavily on imputed prices because of ongoing instability.

The most consequential shift in expectations, however, came from Brazil. Viewed from São Paulo, market measures of implicit inflation spiked after the central bank’s Copom decision last week, as traders concluded the monetary authority had grown more tolerant of above-target price rises. The median forecast in the central bank’s Focus survey for 2026 inflation rose for a fourteenth consecutive week to 5.30 per cent, far above the 3 per cent target, while the projected Selic rate for this year climbed to 13.75 per cent. The repricing reflects a widening credibility gap that is also weakening the real and lifting long-dated bond yields.

Investors now look to the next round of data for confirmation of these trends. In Morocco, the sustainability of the slowdown will be tested by upcoming consumer price reports and any signal from Bank al-Maghrib’s next policy meeting. Ghanaian businesses face pressure to adopt forward contracts and bulk purchasing to protect margins, while the Copom minutes and the following Focus bulletin will be parsed in Brazil for any hint of a course correction. Across the developing world, the inflation picture remains a patchwork shaped by local food supply, energy costs and the perceived resolve of central banks.