The El Niño climate pattern has become established in the equatorial Pacific, with multiple national and international meteorological agencies confirming its onset weeks earlier than initially projected. The World Meteorological Organization estimates an 80 percent probability that the phenomenon will persist through November, while the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts the likelihood of a “very strong” event at more than 60 percent by the end of the year. Colombia’s Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam) has warned that the episode could rank among the most intense since 1950, and researchers in Brazil’s Acre state say it is expected to surpass the 2023–2024 El Niño, which was the strongest in seven decades.

In Colombia, the grid operator XM has issued its most urgent preventive alert, warning that under a critical drought scenario simulated using synthetic hydrological series, the aggregate level of the country’s reservoirs could collapse to 19.3 percent — nearly eight percentage points below the previous historic low recorded during the 2024 energy crisis. The operator stressed that to avoid electricity rationing, reservoirs must exceed 80 percent capacity before the dry season begins, while thermal plants would need to sustain an unprecedented average of 100 gigawatt-hours per day for approximately ten months. The national generators’ association Andeg cautioned that the system has never operated with reservoirs below 27 percent, and that doing so would carry an unquantified risk of blackouts. Water rationing, if repeated, would cost the economy an estimated 5.6 billion Colombian pesos per hour, according to the financial group Corficolombiana.

Across Mexico, a report by the private firm Startup Renaissance, citing North American Multi-Model Ensemble projections, warns that the combination of El Niño, the seasonal heatwave known as the canícula, and background climate change will produce one of the hottest summers on record. The analysis identifies eleven northern and western states — including Sonora, Chihuahua, and Sinaloa — as facing severe drought risk, with anticipated crop losses, livestock stress, pest outbreaks, and upward pressure on food prices. Mexican authorities have confirmed the presence of El Niño but have avoided the term “Superniño,” describing the scenario as a possible very strong episode. In Brazil’s Amazonian state of Acre, scientists at the Federal University of Acre project that from August onward the region will experience elevated temperatures, reduced rainfall, and river levels falling toward the historic minimum of 1.23 metres recorded in September 2024, heightening the risk of forest fires.

In Southeast Asia, the Singapore Institute of International Affairs has issued a “red alert” — only the second since its annual haze outlook began in 2019 — warning of a high risk of severe transboundary haze during the second half of 2026. The institute said El Niño is expected to intensify and prolong the dry season, while a positive Indian Ocean Dipole forecast to form around July or August could extend the haze season into October. It noted that firefighting budgets in parts of Indonesia are already depleted and that rising biofuel demand is driving deforestation, increasing the availability of combustible land. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre has confirmed that El Niño conditions are present and are likely to strengthen between August and September. All regions stress that the forecasts remain probabilistic and that the severity of impacts will depend on the actual evolution of atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the coming months.