NOAA now puts the probability of a strong or very strong El Niño at 97% for the three-month period ending December, with an 81% chance of a “very strong” event. The signal is already visible. Satellite images from India’s INSAT-3DS show monsoon clouds retreating from central and western regions, leaving a seasonal rainfall deficit of 18% below normal as the monsoon trough shifts north. In South America, southern Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina are bracing for the first wave of severe storms linked to the phenomenon: the Brazilian meteorological firm MetSul warns of supercells, destructive winds and up to 300 mm of rain over several days starting 16 July, raising the risk of flash floods and landslides.

The mechanism is well established. Warming in the central and eastern Pacific weakens trade winds and reorders global atmospheric circulation. For India, it suppresses the Madden-Julian Oscillation and low-pressure systems that drive the monsoon, while channelling moisture into the northeast, where Meghalaya could receive more than 500 mm in a week. In East Africa, the same pattern is expected to bring above-average rainfall to Somalia, Kenya and Uganda, compounding years of drought. The International Rescue Committee warns that a July 15 climate update will determine the scale of anticipatory funding for 4.8 million Somalis already in need. In Asia, Pakistan faces below-normal monsoon rains and glacier-melt floods, while landslides in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar camps have killed at least 15 and displaced 10,000 since early July.

Economic and health risks are crystallising. Researchers at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo project a high probability that El Niño will be “very strong” during the September–November planting window, threatening Brazil’s soy, corn, coffee and orange crops. Past events cut national agricultural productivity by up to 10%, and irregular rains could force costly replanting. A UBS analysis maps Latin America’s vulnerabilities: Colombia is most exposed because of weak fiscal buffers and high food-price sensitivity; Brazil and Peru also face significant risks, while Argentina may benefit from increased rainfall for grains. In Washington, the Pan American Health Organization has warned that El Niño could increase dengue, Zika and chikungunya outbreaks, aggravate respiratory illnesses from wildfire smoke, and strain mental health services after climate disasters.

The next milestones are near. In India, forecasters are watching for a potential monsoon revival in the last week of July, when the Madden-Julian Oscillation and new low-pressure systems may become active. In East Africa, the July 15 climate update will trigger funding decisions for anticipatory action. For Latin America, the critical window is September–November, when rainfall distribution will shape the 2026/27 harvest. The IRC and PAHO are urging governments and donors to invest in early warning systems, cash transfers and health surveillance now, rather than waiting for disaster to strike.