The World Meteorological Organization confirmed on 6 July that El Niño conditions are intensifying rapidly, with sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific already 2°C above average. The event, which the agency expects to strengthen through September, is combining with background global heating to amplify extreme weather risks worldwide. Colombia’s grid operator XM now puts the probability of a strong or very strong El Niño at over 95%, with a 63% chance of an intensity among the highest recorded since 1950.

Energy systems are absorbing the first shock. In Colombia, spot electricity prices have risen 285% since December, reaching 900 pesos per kilowatt-hour, as reservoirs drop to 66 days of autonomy—below the 87 days held before the 2015–16 El Niño. XM warns that simultaneous maintenance on two large hydro plants, Chivor and Guavio, could force programmed blackouts in the Bogotá region from December. India’s power sector faces a different pressure: the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air projects a generation gap of up to 24 terawatt-hours over the year to June 2027, as weaker monsoon winds cut wind and hydro output while air-conditioning demand rises. The shortfall is small relative to total generation, but the likeliest bridge—a surge in coal-fired power—would release an estimated 17 million tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Food-producing sectors are already registering losses. Peru’s northern coastal waters are 7°C warmer than normal, driving anchovy stocks into deeper, cooler layers. The fishing fleet has landed only 25% of its quota, and nets are being damaged by a proliferation of non-commercial purple crab. The government has declared a state of emergency in nearly 800 municipalities, citing imminent danger from torrential rains and landslides that could affect 9.3 million people. In Morocco, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network placed the kingdom under a heatwave alert, with temperatures exceeding 35°C expected to impose severe thermal stress on spring crops and accelerate soil drying, threatening a farm sector that still accounts for a significant share of GDP and employment.

The UN has urged governments to reinforce early-warning systems and prepare adaptation measures, particularly in developing economies where agriculture and hydro-dependent grids leave populations highly exposed. The next factual milestone is the onset of the southern-hemisphere summer, when El Niño is forecast to peak in intensity between November and January, a period that will test whether the emergency measures now being debated—from fuel procurement for Colombian thermal plants to battery storage in India—are in place in time.