The eve of the World Cup semi-final in Arlington, Texas, was dominated not by team news but by a trans-Mediterranean exchange of words. Spain’s Lamine Yamal, celebrating his 19th birthday, reiterated that the European champions “do not fear anyone,” a direct response to questions about facing France. His earlier assertion that “if France has to fear someone, it’s us” was met with a shrug from French midfielder Adrien Rabiot, who stated his side “fears no one” and arrives in optimal condition. France coach Didier Deschamps, meanwhile, sought to shift the burden, repeatedly labelling Spain as favourites, a view he grounded in their Euro 2024 title and a defensive record that has conceded only once in six matches.

This psychological jousting is underpinned by a lopsided recent history. Spain have won the last two meetings between the sides, both semi-finals: a 2-1 victory at Euro 2024 and a chaotic 5-4 triumph in the 2025 Nations League. Yamal scored in both, while Kylian Mbappé, who has eight goals in this tournament, found the net only from the penalty spot in the latter. Across all competitions, the Spanish prodigy has been on the winning side in eight of ten personal duels with the French captain, a statistic widely noted in Spanish media but downplayed in the French camp, where the focus remains on a forward line that has produced 16 goals, the second-highest tally in the competition.

The tactical battle presents a study in contrasts. Spain, under Luis de la Fuente, have reasserted a possession-based identity, averaging 65.8% of the ball and pressing high to suffocate opponents. Their midfield, anchored by Rodri, has dictated the tempo of every knockout match. France, by contrast, have been ruthlessly direct, leveraging the pace of Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise to exploit transitions. Deschamps acknowledged the challenge of facing a side that “wants the ball and makes it difficult for the opponent to have it,” but noted his own team’s capacity to create problems when in possession. Analysts in London point to the duel between Spain’s high defensive line and France’s speed as the likely decisive factor.

The stakes extend beyond a place in Sunday’s final. France are aiming to become only the third nation to reach three consecutive World Cup finals, a feat previously achieved by Germany and Brazil. For Spain, a first final appearance since their 2010 triumph would cap a 36-match unbeaten run in normal time. The match also falls on Bastille Day, a symbolic date for the French squad, though Deschamps insisted the occasion would not alter his team’s focus. The winner will face either Argentina or England, who meet in Atlanta on Wednesday, with the defeated side contesting the third-place play-off in Miami.