The US-Iran memorandum of understanding, reinforced by a de-confliction cell agreed in Switzerland on Monday, has produced the most sustained reduction in hostilities in Lebanon since the war began on 2 March. A fifth round of US-mediated direct talks between Lebanon and Israel opens in Washington on Tuesday, with separate political and military tracks, even as the ceasefire remains fragile and the Lebanese state’s negotiating position has been weakened by Iran’s inclusion of Lebanon in its own negotiations with Washington.

Lebanese officials, including President Joseph Aoun, insist that only direct state-to-state negotiations can secure a permanent end to the war and an Israeli military withdrawal. Beirut will demand what one official called a “reasonable” timetable for Israeli forces to leave southern Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, has stated that troops will remain in a security zone indefinitely, and Israeli government spokesman David Mencer said the talks’ purpose is “disarming Hezbollah and achieving a genuine peace agreement.” Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, has rejected full disarmament and called on the Lebanese government to abandon the direct talks, betting instead on Tehran to secure an Israeli withdrawal through its own negotiations with the US.

The US-Iran deal, which stipulates a cessation of hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon, has buoyed Hezbollah and, according to Lebanese and foreign officials cited by Reuters, left the Lebanese state in its weakest position yet. A Lebanese official expressed skepticism that tangible progress would emerge, citing a fundamental trust deficit: “We cannot fulfill their demands, and they reject all of ours.” The US has established a monitoring mechanism via CENTCOM to provide real-time information on clashes, and the UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL reported no rocket trajectories or airstrikes since the weekend. President Trump, however, threatened on Sunday to strike Iran “very hard again” if its proxies in Lebanon continue to cause trouble, underscoring the volatility surrounding the diplomatic process.

The Washington talks, chaired by State Department Counselor Dan Holler and Assistant Secretary of Defense Dan Zimmerman, will run for three days and include discussions on “pilot zones” where Israeli forces would withdraw and the Lebanese army would deploy under US supervision. Meanwhile, technical US-Iran talks in Switzerland concluded with a proposal to form four working groups on sanctions, nuclear issues, reconstruction, and monitoring. The Lebanese presidency, after a call with US Vice President JD Vance and Qatar’s prime minister, is exploring a coordination cell to help stabilise the ceasefire. The outcome of the Washington round remains uncertain, with both sides far apart on core demands, and the parallel Iran track continuing to shape the broader diplomatic landscape.