A deepening global crude glut, fuelled by easing West Asia tensions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven Brent down to near four-month lows of around $72 a barrel. The flood of more than 60 million barrels of previously trapped supply into a market where demand remains subdued—particularly from China—has created what analysts at JPMorgan call the risk of a “temporary glut”. Yet the benefit for consumers is far from universal: policy decisions, legacy crude costs and local market dynamics are fragmenting the response at the pump.

Nowhere is the split more visible than in Italy, where the government allowed its final 5-cents-a-litre excise duty discount to expire on 4 July. The end of the emergency measure, introduced during the energy crisis and progressively scaled back from an initial 24.4 cents, immediately added about 6.1 cents per litre once VAT is factored in. Self-service petrol now sits at around €1.86 a litre and diesel approaches €1.94, with motorway prices breaching the €2 mark. Rome argues that with crude prices retreating, the €2 billion-plus package of cuts is no longer justified and that fuel companies must pass on lower wholesale costs more swiftly.

In India, state-run oil marketing companies have kept retail petrol and diesel prices unchanged, citing the processing of more expensive crude purchased during the earlier price spike. Union petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri indicated cuts could come if international prices remain stable, while private retailer Nayara Energy lowered prices by a modest 5 rupees for petrol and 3 rupees for diesel. Argentina presents a picture of extreme fragmentation: a snapshot of pump prices on 5 July recorded by the Energy Secretariat shows regular petrol ranging from just 962 Argentine pesos a litre at Shell in Neuquén to over 2,200 pesos in several provinces and brands, reflecting a volatile mix of competition, logistics and a floating exchange rate.

The uneven pass-through is also visible in air travel. On Gulf-India routes, the gradual restoration of flights after recent disruptions has not eased fares; travel agents report near-full planes and strong summer demand keeping return tickets above Dh1,800, with little respite expected before September. For drivers and passengers alike, the message is the same: a collapse in the oil price does not automatically translate into cheaper mobility, as fiscal, logistical and seasonal pressures continue to shape final prices.