The global crude benchmark Brent has fallen back to $72 a barrel, exactly where it stood before the Iran conflict erupted in late February, and the US benchmark WTI trades at $69. Yet at the pump, the relief is far less dramatic. On the eve of the 4 July holiday, American drivers faced a national average of $3.84 per gallon, nearly a dollar higher than the sub-$3 level before the war, according to the AAA. In Switzerland, unleaded 95 still costs 1.81 francs per litre and diesel 1.98 francs, 8 and 10 per cent above pre-war marks. In Germany, prices spiked further after a government fuel subsidy expired at the start of July, drawing sharp criticism from the ADAC automobile club.

The disconnect stems from a shift in the supply bottleneck. With the Strait of Hormuz now seeing roughly 110 tankers pass through in a fortnight—half the total that moved during the nearly four months of blockade, per Lloyd’s List Intelligence—crude is suddenly abundant. Analysts at HSBC note that supply is now outstripping demand, and some Gulf grades are trading at a discount. But the chokepoint has moved to the refinery. Global capacity to turn crude into diesel, petrol and jet fuel remains tight, keeping product prices elevated even as raw material costs tumble. The Saxo Bank describes the crude market as having swung from crisis pricing to clearance pricing, while refined products remain in short supply.

Viewed from Washington, the political pressure is acute. President Trump has accused oil companies of “squeezing” Americans and ordered the Justice Department to investigate. With midterm elections four months away, two-thirds of US households say high fuel prices are causing hardship, a Gallup poll found, and nearly half have altered summer travel plans. In Europe, motorists are similarly frustrated, though the dynamics differ: the end of a German tax rebate amplified the pain, while Swiss and Spanish drivers see wide regional price dispersion. In Indonesia, the state-owned Pertamina cut non-subsidised diesel prices by up to 15 per cent on 1 July, with Pertamina Dex falling to Rp21,150 per litre, as the government held electricity tariffs steady to protect purchasing power. Yet Jakarta is also preparing to mandate B50 biodiesel—a 50 per cent palm-oil blend—from 1 July 2026, with no price yet announced, though officials say it will follow the existing diesel formula.

In Argentina, fuel prices are a patchwork reflecting local taxes, currency effects and brand strategies. On 4 July, YPF’s regular petrol ranged from 1,007 pesos per litre in Tierra del Fuego to 1,419 pesos in Corrientes, while Shell and Axion charged over 2,100 pesos in several provinces. The next milestone to watch is how quickly refineries can ramp up product output to narrow the crude-product spread, and whether political interventions—from US probes to Indonesian price-setting—alter the trajectory before the B50 mandate takes effect.