China conducted a submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific this week, the first such launch from a nuclear-powered submarine, according to Chinese state media and regional security officials. The missile, which landed in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, was detected shortly after launch by Taiwan’s US-supplied Pave Paws early-warning radar, and Taiwanese officials said real-time intelligence was shared with Washington. Beijing described the test as a routine annual training exercise not directed at any country.

Pacific leaders expressed alarm. Tonga’s prime minister said the test “caused a stir, created tension” and joined a chorus of regional condemnation. The Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau also voiced concern, with one leader calling it “not something a friend does.” Australia labelled the launch a “provocative act” and is drafting a strong statement through the Pacific Islands Forum. The United States, via its State Department, accused China of a “rapid and opaque nuclear weapons buildup” and urged arms control negotiations. In Beijing, foreign ministry spokespeople reiterated the test’s routine nature, while state media celebrated the achievement of a fully operational nuclear triad, citing experts who said the sea-based leg now provides a reliable second-strike capability.

Analysts in Washington and Australia assess that the launch demonstrated a JL-3 missile with an estimated range of 10,000 kilometres, capable of reaching the continental United States from waters near China’s coast. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a US think tank, reports that China has tripled its nuclear warhead count to over 600 in six years, with the Pentagon projecting more than 1,000 by 2030. The test also highlighted Taiwan’s early-warning capabilities and the depth of intelligence sharing with the US, as the island’s radar station monitored the missile’s initial trajectory. Separately, Chinese state media reported the first successful at-sea recovery of a rocket propulsion unit, a step toward reusable launch technology with potential military and civilian applications.

The launch is the third time China has sent a long-range missile across the Pacific, following a land-based test in 2024 that ended a four-decade hiatus. It comes as Beijing pursues a 2027 goal to modernise the People’s Liberation Army and a 2050 target for a “world-class” force, with defence spending rising 13-fold over 30 years. Pacific nations, where memories of Cold War-era nuclear testing by the US, France, and the UK remain vivid, view the test as a violation of the Treaty of Rarotonga’s nuclear-free zone. The Pacific Islands Forum is expected to issue a condemnation at its upcoming leaders’ meeting in Palau. Meanwhile, Australia and Tonga aim to finalise a comprehensive treaty by year-end, and Fiji and Australia have opened their new Ocean of Peace military alliance to other Pacific defence forces, a move Tonga is weighing.