Bulgaria has formally withdrawn from the ‘coalition of the willing’ backing Ukraine, Prime Minister Rumen Radev announced on 14 July, hours after the group’s Paris summit concluded without Sofia’s participation. The same day, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that the coalition’s first military exercises — designed to rehearse a post-ceasefire peacekeeping mission — will take place on Polish soil in the autumn, with French and British troops. The twin developments lay bare a widening gap between a core of Western European states pressing for operational readiness and a growing number of eastern and southern members that are stepping back from direct military engagement.

Radev, who took office in May 2026, stated that Bulgaria “does not participate in a coalition that insists on continuing financial and military aid to Ukraine,” arguing that the conflict’s solution lies in “a strong diplomatic mission, not in prolonging it by military means.” His position aligns Sofia with a cluster of Central and Eastern European governments — including those of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary — that have publicly refused to fund or arm Kyiv. Italy, while remaining inside the coalition, has ruled out sending troops to Ukraine and instead proposed a collective-security mechanism modelled on NATO’s Article 5. Germany, according to government sources cited by DPA, will not join the Polish drills, describing them as small-scale and staff-level in nature.

Viewed from Paris and London, the exercises are a tangible step toward assembling a multinational force capable of guaranteeing Ukraine’s security after a ceasefire. President Emmanuel Macron said after the summit that Moldova and North Macedonia would join the coalition, expanding it to 36 states. Finnish President Alexander Stubb added that subsequent manoeuvres are planned in Turkey and Romania, involving some 1,500 personnel. Polish leader Tusk, however, warned that peace remains unlikely before winter, citing what he called Russia’s “rigid stance” and an expectation that Moscow will prolong the war. Moscow has repeatedly stated that it considers any foreign troop presence on Ukrainian territory a legitimate military target and a threat to its own security.

Analysts in South Asia and Western Europe note that Bulgaria’s exit may encourage other hesitant members to follow, especially as economic pressures mount. A Russian parliamentary official described the move as a reflection of internal political struggles in Europe rather than a pro-Russian shift, while the Kremlin’s spokesman has labelled the coalition a “coalition of war instigators.” The next concrete step is the autumn exercise in Poland, which will test the coalition’s ability to coordinate a security guarantee mission even as its political cohesion remains under strain.