A new Datafolha poll on Brazil’s 2026 presidential race, released on Saturday, shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintaining a ten-point advantage over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round voting intentions. Lula registered 41% support against Bolsonaro’s 31%, a margin unchanged from the institute’s previous survey in May. In simulated second-round runoffs, the leftist incumbent leads the right-wing challenger by 47% to 43%, also stable. The poll, conducted on 17–18 June among 2,004 respondents, has a margin of error of two percentage points and was registered with the Superior Electoral Court.

From Brasília, political strategists interpret the results as evidence that both frontrunners have absorbed the initial shocks of corruption allegations without dramatic electoral damage. The “Dark Horse” scandal—revelations that Flávio Bolsonaro solicited funds from a banker now jailed to finance a film about his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro—had dented the senator’s standing in earlier polls. However, allies of the Liberal Party point to the stabilisation as proof the affair has run its course. Meanwhile, a simultaneous federal police operation targeting Jaques Wagner, Lula’s Senate leader, over ties to the same Banco Master, was only partially captured by the survey. Lula’s Workers’ Party minimises the impact, arguing the probe is not directly linked to the president and will not rival the damage of the audio leaks implicating Flávio.

Viewed from São Paulo, the data confirm a deeply polarised electorate. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied in rejection, with 48% and 46% respectively saying they would never vote for each candidate. Third-way contenders remain marginal: Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos poll at 3%, while Romeu Zema, Aécio Neves and others score 2% or less. The fragmentation underscores a two-person contest. Analysts note that Lula retains strong support in the Northeast (61%) and among lower-income groups, whereas Flávio Bolsonaro registers high backing in the South (54%) and among evangelical voters and entrepreneurs.

According to observers in Rio de Janeiro, both campaigns now expect the scandal dynamic to recede as the official campaign season approaches. The Bolsonaro camp bets that the Wagner affair will erode Lula’s integrity image, while the government hopes its spending programmes and the recent congressional approval of a work-schedule reform will broaden support. A separate question in the poll indicates that 65% of Brazilians say Donald Trump’s endorsement would not affect their vote, undercutting any potential foreign boost for the Bolsonaro camp. With the election set for October, the next Datafolha round—likely after further judicial developments—will test whether the current equilibrium holds.