Belgium enter their concluding Group G fixture against New Zealand at BC Place on Saturday knowing that anything less than victory will almost certainly end their World Cup campaign at the first hurdle. The Red Devils, pre-tournament favourites to top the group, have recorded consecutive draws against Egypt and Iran, leaving them third in the standings with two points and their attack, built around Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, having produced just one goal in two matches.

De Bruyne has struggled to impose his creative influence, while Lukaku has been starved of clear chances. The return of winger Jérémy Doku, who missed part of the camp for the birth of his child, offers pace on the left, but head coach Rudi Garcia has yet to find a coherent attacking rhythm. European analysts note that the team’s build-up play has been ponderous, allowing opponents to settle into deep defensive blocks that Belgium have been unable to unlock.

New Zealand, bottom of the group with a single point, are not yet eliminated. A victory over Belgium, combined with an Iran defeat by Egypt, would lift the All Whites into second place and a historic berth in the round of 32. Darren Bazeley’s side took the lead twice against Iran before settling for a 2-2 draw, and they created chances against Egypt, but defensive lapses proved costly in a 2-0 loss. Chris Wood, the experienced striker, remains their primary threat, though he is yet to score in the tournament.

The group’s other fixture, between leaders Egypt and second-placed Iran in Seattle, will unfold simultaneously. Egypt, with four points, need only a draw to secure top spot and a theoretically more favourable last-32 opponent. Iran, also on two points but ahead of Belgium on goals scored, can advance with a win. The complex permutations mean that Belgium’s fate is not entirely in their own hands: a narrow victory might still leave them reliant on the Egypt-Iran result to avoid finishing third and hoping to scrape through as one of the best third-placed teams.

For Belgium, a generation that reached the semi-finals in 2018 and then exited in the group stage in 2022, the match represents a moment of reckoning. A win would likely secure a knockout berth and a chance to rebuild momentum; failure would confirm a second consecutive early exit and intensify scrutiny on the squad’s ageing core.